In 2014, PJ lost both regular season games against Kevin, like he did this year. In fact, with a lifetime record of 33-10 vs PJ, Kevin could rename his team to "I own PJ". But that's unlikely to happen before the FADUCO Bowl since Kevin understandably is reluctant to jinx himself. And what happened later in 2014? In an upset, PJ crushed Kevin 89-42 during the 2014 FADUCO Bowl, giving himself his first championship ever.
This history shows that one can't trust the game preview. Kevin is currently favored by 5 points over PJ, and so far there are no further COVID-related injuries on either team's roster. Kevin is starting two Free Agent pickups this week, not sure if that will adversely affect his current #1 spot as the most efficient manager in the league. Also, Kevin has more "toss-up" RBs to choose from, asides from Joe Mixon. On the flip side, despite being #8 in managerial efficiency, a lot of PJ's managerial troubles have recently improved due ironically to injuries. Lamar Jackson is still hobbled and so it's no longer a toss-up deciding on QB starts for PJ. And Leonard Fournette is also out due to injury, simplifying RB starting decisions. I therefore think Kevin's managerial efficiency ranking is a bit overstated while PJ is underrated this week.
For position-by-position ratings, the CBS projections are as good as any I guess for the individual players. We know some will be widely off. But each side has an "at-risk" starting decision where the player's floor can end up pretty low:
Kevin - Starting Sony Michel over Chase Edmonds or Ronald Jones. There is talk that Cam Akers may be playing as well, so Michel isn't a sure bell-cow back this week. Also, the Rams are playing Baltimore, who got shredded in the air last weekend. Meanwhile, James Connor is still iffy vs Dallas this week, which benefits Chase Edmonds. And Ronald Jones faces the Jets - enough said.
PJ - Starting Elijah Mitchell over Hunter Renfrow. While any SF RB play is a high-ceiling one, this is Mitchell's first game back from an injury after 3 games out and the 49ers may be easing him into their offense. Hunter Renfrow is a safe floor play at WR, and the Colts are pretty friendly to opposing WRs. But no question Mitchell has more upside against the Houston defense. So does PJ start the home-run hitter with the .220 average or the singles hitter with the .300 average?
As for DST, here are the tiers for each team's and some free agent defenses out there. No comment on whether each team is starting the right defense. We all know PJ is starting the Dolphins D for sentimental fandom reasons.
"Start them with Confidence"Chicago (best of this lot)
NY Giants
Seattle
Miami (best of this lot)
Cleveland
LA Rams
In summary, I think this will be a close match. PJ repeats history and gets positive karma from the fantasy gods for his 1st and 11 posts. Random guess 80-76. Sorry if I jinxed you PJ.
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