With 3 more weeks left, we may be facing an unprecedented scenario for the playoffs: What is the rule if the Caucasian division winner has a worse record than the #4 Asian team? Who would get into the playoffs? This scenario is theoretically possible this late into the season because all remaining games are inter-divisional. Thus, it's possible the Caucasian division winner may be a sub-.500 team.
We could have a somewhat decent chance of ending up like this below if Byron beats Donny but then loses to Hai and Victor, and Hai and Victor either win out or lose one game to a non-contender:
Tuna: 11-3
Victor: 9-5 or 8-6
Donny: 9-5
Hai: 8-6 or 7-7
Byron: 6-8
Kevin: 6-8
PJ: 6-8
So Mr. Commish, what would the ruling be in this scenario?
Let's break down the game win probabilities (pun intended) of each contender. Using the breakdown percentages of the remaining 6 contenders, I came up with probabilities that each contender wins 3, 2, 1, or zero games.
Due to being far behind in points scored, I didn't consider Vu, Matt, or Justin. These 3 would be my bottom three in rankings respectively. Poor Justin lost a tie-break because Dak gave him -8 points in the late game, if he had started Cam Newton on bye, Cam's zero points would have given him the win. So he deserved the bottom spot. Of course Tuna has essentially locked a playoff spot, if not the #1 spot, due to his lead in points scored.
Here are the breakdown percentages.
As you can see, the Win 3 and Win 2 numbers combined don't look very good for the Caucasian teams. PJ, the only current Caucasian team with a winning record, has about a 70% of ending up at .500 or worse. While Byron may get to .500 or better with around a 52% chance, Hai's chances are better at 71%. Kevin though has the best chance if all the contenders for the #4 seed end up 7-7, as he has a strong points lead.
We could have a somewhat decent chance of ending up like this below if Byron beats Donny but then loses to Hai and Victor, and Hai and Victor either win out or lose one game to a non-contender:
Tuna: 11-3
Victor: 9-5 or 8-6
Donny: 9-5
Hai: 8-6 or 7-7
Byron: 6-8
Kevin: 6-8
PJ: 6-8
So Mr. Commish, what would the ruling be in this scenario?
Let's break down the game win probabilities (pun intended) of each contender. Using the breakdown percentages of the remaining 6 contenders, I came up with probabilities that each contender wins 3, 2, 1, or zero games.
Due to being far behind in points scored, I didn't consider Vu, Matt, or Justin. These 3 would be my bottom three in rankings respectively. Poor Justin lost a tie-break because Dak gave him -8 points in the late game, if he had started Cam Newton on bye, Cam's zero points would have given him the win. So he deserved the bottom spot. Of course Tuna has essentially locked a playoff spot, if not the #1 spot, due to his lead in points scored.
Here are the breakdown percentages.
| Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Win 3 | Win 2 | Win 1 | Win 0 | |
| Donny | 45.5% | 63.6% | 72.7% | 21.0% | 45.2% | 28.4% | 5.4% |
| Victor | 81.8% | 81.8% | 54.5% | 36.5% | 46.7% | 15.3% | 1.5% |
| Hai | 81.8% | 45.5% | 63.6% | 23.7% | 47.2% | 25.5% | 3.6% |
| PJ | 45.5% | 27.3% | 36.4% | 4.5% | 25.3% | 44.9% | 25.2% |
| Kevin | 36.4% | 72.7% | 36.4% | 9.6% | 37.3% | 42.1% | 11.0% |
| Byron | 54.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 13.5% | 38.8% | 36.4% | 11.3% |
As you can see, the Win 3 and Win 2 numbers combined don't look very good for the Caucasian teams. PJ, the only current Caucasian team with a winning record, has about a 70% of ending up at .500 or worse. While Byron may get to .500 or better with around a 52% chance, Hai's chances are better at 71%. Kevin though has the best chance if all the contenders for the #4 seed end up 7-7, as he has a strong points lead.
But instead of going through all the permutations at this point, let's use the expected number of wins for the 6 teams and add to current number of wins to get a ranking.
Expected number of wins for contenders:
Victor 2.18 -> 8.18
Hai 1.91 -> 6.91
Donny 1.82 -> 8.82
Byron 1.55 -> 6.55
Kevin 1.45 -> 6.45
PJ 1.09 -> 7.09
Thus, here are the Week 12 Rankings:
1. Tuna
2. Donny
3. Victor
4. PJ
5. Hai
6. Byron
7. Kevin
8. Vu
9. Matt
10. Justin
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