FADUCO 2016 Draft Grades

Last year, I tried using a quantitative model to grade everyone's draft. My spreadsheet ended up really badly in its predictive capability. It ranked 3 of the 4 playoff teams in the bottom 4. It gave the highest score to the team that ended up 2-12. This approached Mel Kiper levels of terrible analysis. In years past, I just graded with my gut and was pretty good in predicting the successful teams. I think a lot of you also enjoyed being assigned a spirit animal to reflect your team. So this year, will I be going back to the fly-by-seats of pants grading? Heck no. I just created a new spreadsheet model to try and grade everyone's team. But I am bringing back the spirit animals for 2016. Courtesy of my trip to South Africa in May. Please note that all of the animals used can hurt a human badly, even if they are herbivores. 

High-level explanation of my model is that I gave a score to each player based on the difference between the 10th or 20th best same position player (depending on position) with said player. I then adjusted that score based on whether the player is an intended starter or bench / deep bench. That way, sleepers or handcuffs won't get as hurt with low scores. Main issue is that the underlying player values are based on the CBS season projections. So this model hurts those who drafted players who are out for a part of the season (see: Tom Brady).  For transparency purposes, I can email the spreadsheet to the league. 

For 2016, from best to worst overall. You can click on the photos to see them in bigger size.


Tuna

Keeper Grade:  A+
Tuna had 2 of the top 3 WRs and 1 of the top 3 RBs. Far and away the best set of keepers.

Draft Grade: B-
What went right:  Drafted pretty good RB2. Nice depth at RB with Langford.
What went wrong:  Starting QBs may not be elite enough for championship. 

Overall Grade: A

Spirit Animal: Carcharodon carcharias
Tuna deserves a fish spirit. Something even bigger than a tuna chomping up the rest of the league.

Justin

Keeper Grade:  B+
Cam Newton is the undisputed #1QB. Charles and Jordan are injury risks but have very high upsides too.

Draft Grade: B+
What went right:  Drafted every notable Panther except Kelvin Benjamin. Handcuffed Charles with Ware pick.
What went wrong:  RB2 depth can be an issue. Bench WRs not expected to contribute soon. 

Overall Grade: A-

Spirit Animal: Panthera leo

Hmm, an animal of the Panthera genus for the ultimate Panthers fan. King of the Caucasians.

Matt

Keeper Grade:  B
Aaron Rodgers is a stud, but I'm not sure on the viability of Freeman and Bryant. Freeman slowed down last year after a fast start and Bryant has a rookie throwing to him.

Draft Grade: B+
What went right:  I really like the Bennett TE pick. Good WR pickups in Baldwin and Tate. No major errors aside from the usual early K pick.
What went wrong: 3 TEs though? Depth a bit lacking in RB.

Overall Grade: B+

Spirit Animal: Panthera pardus

This team is a bit of a quiet mystery but can creep up and surprise. 

Vu

Keeper Grade:  A-
Last year's champion was not by luck. Strong set of Hopkins, Miller, and Gronk. Miller expected to even do better in Houston this year.

Draft Grade: B-
What went right:  Very nice pickups of Brandin Cooks and Keenan Allen give Vu maybe the best WR trio in the league.
What went wrong: QB picks seem pretty weak given that we don't count much passing yardage in our league. RBs after Miller don't seem to have much upside.

Overall Grade: B+

Spirit Animal: Loxodonta Africana

Vu was the most powerful team last year and is ready to battle all comers like these two below. A large obstacle to all.

Hai

Keeper Grade:  A-
In terms of value, Hai had the second best set of Gurley, AJ Green, and Reed. Top 4 in all three.

Draft Grade: C-
What went right:  Mixed safe high-ceiling QB and lottery ticket QB with Brees and Prescott. Excellent depth in WR.
What went wrong: CBS didn't like the Prescott and Diggs picks, but I can excuse these picks. However, it looks like Hai is going to go 3 WR most of the time since his RB drafts were very underwhelming. 

Overall Grade: B

Spirit Animal: Mellivora capensis

Hai did have to juggle 3 teams during the draft. He often gets overlooked in the offseason and surprises during the main season. So we're going with the overachieving spirit here. Sorry Kevin, the Honey Badger is going elsewhere this year.

Donny

Keeper Grade:  B+
Automatic starters in Wilson and Julio Jones. Cooper a great WR2.

Draft Grade: C
What went right:  Derrick Henry has keeper potential and Donny stole him from Victor. Great depth at RB as well. Got the Broncos D
What went wrong: May have waited too long to pick a backup QB. Pick of Moncrief over K. Benjamin can haunt him. TE position a mess. 

Overall Grade: B-

Spirit Animal: Struthio camelus

Ostriches don't bury their head in the sand and ignore bad news. They actually have a very strong leg kick that can disable or even kill large predators. So Donny can cause some upsets to the upper echelon teams.

PJ

Keeper Grade:  C
PJ's aging roster last year resulted in some issues. Both Adrian Peterson and Brandon Marshall are getting up in years and are large injury risks.

Draft Grade: B
What went right:  PJ went with no Miami drama until late in the draft. Lacy and Walker are straightforward plays. Derek Carr is projected to improve and is starter-worthy.
What went wrong: WR depth behind the starting 2 are weak. Possible tough managerial calls during the season due to tight scoring spread among his QBs and TEs. 

Overall Grade: C+

Spirit Animal: Arctocephalus pusillus

Yeah, the Cape Fur Seal would usually lose to the Great White Shark, just as PJ's team should lose to Tuna in a matchup. But they are usually able to evade the shark. Also, like PJ, Fur Seals are usually friendly towards human strangers, just don't piss them off.

Byron

Keeper Grade:  F
Worst.Keepers.Ever. Not sure any of the 3 will be starters by the second half of this season. The only negative keeper score in the league.

Draft Grade: A
What went right: Thanks to Hai, Byron is going to field a competitive team. Team improved significantly with Elliott, Tyrod Taylor, and Maclin. 
What went wrong: If this team was left on autodraft, it could have been disastrous with selecting 4 QBs and 5 TEs. This team is still very weak at the WR spot. 

Overall Grade: C

Spirit Animal: Giraffa camelopardalis

I really wanted Tall Asian to get the Giraffe, but he had to have a competent draft and not get his overall grade dragged down. Ironically, I heard Byron is on the short side. Anyway, as the new guy, he'll stand out. Most likely not in a good way (aka missing the draft or getting confused by the waiver wire process).

Victor

Keeper Grade:  D
Second-worst set of keepers. WRs are inconsistent and not sure if CJ Anderson will be a bell-cow RB for long.

Draft Grade: C+
What went right: Drafted good depth at RB. Will have very high-upside reinforcements after week 4.
What went wrong: No RB handcuffs. Reached for Josh Gordon. Too much gambling on upside with the bench. 

Overall Grade: D+

Spirit Animal: Aepyceros melampus,

The Impala is a vital part of the ecosystem, much like Victor is a vital part of FADUCO. However, its importance is mostly due to being a food source for all the predators. Expect the top teams to feast on Victor this year. 

Kevin

Keeper Grade:  C+
Kevin opted to gamble on missing 4 weeks of Le'veon Bell. Surprisingly, CBS believes Allen Robinson will fall back to earth a bit in their projections.

Draft Grade: D-
What went right: Got DeAngelo Williams to complement Bell. Stole Victor's handcuff RB.
What went wrong: Very bad drafting of WRs, it was quantity over quality. No real depth at RB and TE. Kevin's draft serves a reminder that being absent from the draft will hurt your team greatly.

Overall Grade: D

Spirit Animal: Spheniscus demersus

The African Penguin also is called the Jackass Penguin. While it may be the cutest animal here and serve to delight Kevin's daughters, it even gets beaten up and eaten by the Fur Seal (like that PJ?). There are warning signs saying be careful around the penguins since they can bite your finger off, but yeah, no one is really afraid of these cuties.