After last week's games, it's a bit ironic that PJ, even though he lost the tie-break to me, actually enhanced his playoff odds while mine are a lot less than his. Kevin did all but clinch the playoff spot due to his massive lead in points scored. Below are an ESTIMATE of playoff odds. I couldn't get the total percentage to come to 400% because of some complicated permutations, so I had to add some percentages to some owners. I am pretty certain about the calculated odds for Kevin, PJ, and Vu, however.
I based match-up probabilities on the current breakdown. My relatively low odds despite my current W-L record is mostly because the breakdown says I only have a 3 in 13 chance of beating Kevin. He's basically the #1 seed currently and so it'll be really hard to overcome a fully loaded Kevin squad.
Here are the odds, in descending order:
Kevin: 100.0%
Win or lose, he's in due to leading the 2nd highest scorer by almost a hundred points. Side note: the 3rd-highest and 4th-highest scorers in the league are the bottom 2 teams in W-L. That's pretty crazy even by Fantasy Football standards.
PJ: 98.1%
If PJ wins, he's in. Even if he loses, he just needs either Justin to lose or score within 18 points of Justin. Justin has only outscored PJ by 18 points or more once this season so far.
Vu: 55.4%
Almost a lock to get in if he beats PJ, as he just needs to score within 60 points of Justin. If he loses, he needs Donny, Justin, and Hai to all lose.
Justin: 54.1%
If he loses to Tuna, he's virtually eliminated. If Justin wins, it's a bit complicated. He'll get a playoff spot if he wins and PJ beats Vu. Even if Vu beats PJ, Justin can still get in if Kevin beats Victor.
Victor: 42.6%
Despite being one of the 3 teams that are 8-5, Victor is far from a lock for the playoffs unlike the other 2. That's because he'd lose out to the points scored tie-breaker to everyone, except maybe for Hai. Thus, if he wins, he's in. If he loses, he basically needs 2 of the following to also lose: Vu, Donny, and Justin. He also needs to be within 21 points of Hai if he loses and Hai wins.
Donny: 35.3%
Eliminated if he loses. If he wins, and if Victor wins, he needs Tuna to beat Justin and PJ to beat Vu. If Kevin beats Victor, he only needs either Justin or Vu to lose. Long story short, Donny should root for Kevin and PJ.
Hai: 14.5%
Hai needs the most help. He has to win his game and needs Vu, Justin, and Donny to all lose. He can also sneak in if Victor loses and scores less than 21 points than Hai, and 2 of the 3 mentioned previously lose as well. Hai has outscored Victor 4 times in the past 13 games by more than 21 points.
I based match-up probabilities on the current breakdown. My relatively low odds despite my current W-L record is mostly because the breakdown says I only have a 3 in 13 chance of beating Kevin. He's basically the #1 seed currently and so it'll be really hard to overcome a fully loaded Kevin squad.
Here are the odds, in descending order:
Kevin: 100.0%
Win or lose, he's in due to leading the 2nd highest scorer by almost a hundred points. Side note: the 3rd-highest and 4th-highest scorers in the league are the bottom 2 teams in W-L. That's pretty crazy even by Fantasy Football standards.
PJ: 98.1%
If PJ wins, he's in. Even if he loses, he just needs either Justin to lose or score within 18 points of Justin. Justin has only outscored PJ by 18 points or more once this season so far.
Vu: 55.4%
Almost a lock to get in if he beats PJ, as he just needs to score within 60 points of Justin. If he loses, he needs Donny, Justin, and Hai to all lose.
Justin: 54.1%
If he loses to Tuna, he's virtually eliminated. If Justin wins, it's a bit complicated. He'll get a playoff spot if he wins and PJ beats Vu. Even if Vu beats PJ, Justin can still get in if Kevin beats Victor.
Victor: 42.6%
Despite being one of the 3 teams that are 8-5, Victor is far from a lock for the playoffs unlike the other 2. That's because he'd lose out to the points scored tie-breaker to everyone, except maybe for Hai. Thus, if he wins, he's in. If he loses, he basically needs 2 of the following to also lose: Vu, Donny, and Justin. He also needs to be within 21 points of Hai if he loses and Hai wins.
Donny: 35.3%
Eliminated if he loses. If he wins, and if Victor wins, he needs Tuna to beat Justin and PJ to beat Vu. If Kevin beats Victor, he only needs either Justin or Vu to lose. Long story short, Donny should root for Kevin and PJ.
Hai: 14.5%
Hai needs the most help. He has to win his game and needs Vu, Justin, and Donny to all lose. He can also sneak in if Victor loses and scores less than 21 points than Hai, and 2 of the 3 mentioned previously lose as well. Hai has outscored Victor 4 times in the past 13 games by more than 21 points.
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