Justin vs. PJ
Since it's 5 PM on Friday, I don't feel like staying in the office much longer. I'll preview the Bear vs. the Bunny tonight. Hope to have some time tomorrow to preview Kevin versus me tomorrow.
Intangibles:
The office-mates split their regular season matches. On the surface, both PJ and Justin are the #1 and #2 most efficient coaches respectively. PJ had a nice birthday gift last week of juuuust squeaking by Vu in order to make the playoffs, while Justin stepped up and delivered the high score of the week. Justin has the momentum, PJ has the slight edge in breakdown record of 8-6. I don't think PJ has advanced to the finals since 1999, so he has history working against him. Justin the Bear has stepped up his trash-talking game this week, he gets my bonus points.
Edge: Justin (slight)
QB:
Is Joe Flacco Elite? Maybe, but he's no Tom Brady. Brady is facing a Miami D that forced him to his second-worst performance of the season so far, but this is at home and the preseason rust is long-gone. Moreover, Jacksonville is actually not horrible versus the pass lately, so the matchup isn't as favorable for Flacco.
Edge: PJ (Strong)
RB:
Even before PJ's stubborn insistence on starting Tre Mason 2 weeks in a row versus tough run defenses, this was a major strength area for Justin. Foster and Charles have averaged about 39 points combined in the past 5 games they've played versus a combined 29 points for Lynch and Bell for PJ. In PJ's defence, Joique Bell and Tre Mason actually averaged about the same number of points (13.8 vs. 13.0) in the past 5 games before last night. It's just that Mason was a higher-variance play that struck out for PJ.
Edge: Justin (Strong)
WR:
Both coaches have a Green Bay WR as their #1WR. While Jordy Nelson has the better numbers, he's gotten more good games at home than away. This week the Packers are at Buffalo, so that's a minus for Justin. Jordy has only averaged 9.8 points on the road versus his overall average of 14.7 points. Cobb has averaged 11.6 points on the road versus an overall average of 11.5 points, so it doesn't matter as much where he plays. For the #2 spot, Golden Tate has cooled a bit since Calvin Johnson transformed back to Megatron, but he's still averaging 7.4 points in the last 5 games. That's 1 more point than Mr. 69 yards, who at least is consistent averaging 6.4 points. But PJ did pick up 2 sleepers for possible duty at the #2 spot, so it's a correctible situation.
Edge: PJ (Slight)
TE:
Different strategies here. Justin is going for upside since Donnell is facing the Dreadskins, who gave up a zillion TDs to him the last time around. But Donnell hasn't gone past 3 points in 4 of his past 5 games. PJ's Heath Miller is as unspectacular as they come, less upside but slightly less chance of a 1-2 point dud. For both sides, this position isn't critical, anything here more than 5 points would be a bonus.
Edge: Justin (Slight)
DST:
While the Lions have the better reputation, the Vikings have the better weekly average (10.4 vs. 9.9). However, this game is in Detroit, and the Vikings D so far this season have fared pretty poorly when facing an NFL-quality QB on the road. I know, Stafford last year laid a big dump at home in our first round of the playoffs (Thank you Matt! - Victor) but I still like the Detroit D better. Maybe not 7 points better as the preview says, but still a slight edge to Justin.
Edge: Justin (Slight)
K:
Normally I would give Kickers a push for everyone, but I noticed that Crosby has scored double digits in like 5 of the last 6 games while Connor Barth just played 2 games and this week is away from the high altitude confines of Mile-High.
Edge: Justin (Moderate)
Overall:
PJ can't say I'm jinxing him. Justin is the solid favorite due to his edge in everything but QB and questionably WR. Justin has more "outs" than PJ in that one or two of his players can have bad games and the other ones will hit home runs to compensate. PJ is pretty much all-in on Brady and has less margin for error. I think the RB matchups for Justin are too enticing, and this makes it even tougher for PJ to pull the upset.
Overall Edge: Justin (Strong)
Predicted Score that I Totally Pulled Out of a Hat: Justin 102, PJ 81
Since it's 5 PM on Friday, I don't feel like staying in the office much longer. I'll preview the Bear vs. the Bunny tonight. Hope to have some time tomorrow to preview Kevin versus me tomorrow.
Intangibles:
The office-mates split their regular season matches. On the surface, both PJ and Justin are the #1 and #2 most efficient coaches respectively. PJ had a nice birthday gift last week of juuuust squeaking by Vu in order to make the playoffs, while Justin stepped up and delivered the high score of the week. Justin has the momentum, PJ has the slight edge in breakdown record of 8-6. I don't think PJ has advanced to the finals since 1999, so he has history working against him. Justin the Bear has stepped up his trash-talking game this week, he gets my bonus points.
Edge: Justin (slight)
QB:
Is Joe Flacco Elite? Maybe, but he's no Tom Brady. Brady is facing a Miami D that forced him to his second-worst performance of the season so far, but this is at home and the preseason rust is long-gone. Moreover, Jacksonville is actually not horrible versus the pass lately, so the matchup isn't as favorable for Flacco.
Edge: PJ (Strong)
RB:
Even before PJ's stubborn insistence on starting Tre Mason 2 weeks in a row versus tough run defenses, this was a major strength area for Justin. Foster and Charles have averaged about 39 points combined in the past 5 games they've played versus a combined 29 points for Lynch and Bell for PJ. In PJ's defence, Joique Bell and Tre Mason actually averaged about the same number of points (13.8 vs. 13.0) in the past 5 games before last night. It's just that Mason was a higher-variance play that struck out for PJ.
Edge: Justin (Strong)
WR:
Both coaches have a Green Bay WR as their #1WR. While Jordy Nelson has the better numbers, he's gotten more good games at home than away. This week the Packers are at Buffalo, so that's a minus for Justin. Jordy has only averaged 9.8 points on the road versus his overall average of 14.7 points. Cobb has averaged 11.6 points on the road versus an overall average of 11.5 points, so it doesn't matter as much where he plays. For the #2 spot, Golden Tate has cooled a bit since Calvin Johnson transformed back to Megatron, but he's still averaging 7.4 points in the last 5 games. That's 1 more point than Mr. 69 yards, who at least is consistent averaging 6.4 points. But PJ did pick up 2 sleepers for possible duty at the #2 spot, so it's a correctible situation.
Edge: PJ (Slight)
TE:
Different strategies here. Justin is going for upside since Donnell is facing the Dreadskins, who gave up a zillion TDs to him the last time around. But Donnell hasn't gone past 3 points in 4 of his past 5 games. PJ's Heath Miller is as unspectacular as they come, less upside but slightly less chance of a 1-2 point dud. For both sides, this position isn't critical, anything here more than 5 points would be a bonus.
Edge: Justin (Slight)
DST:
While the Lions have the better reputation, the Vikings have the better weekly average (10.4 vs. 9.9). However, this game is in Detroit, and the Vikings D so far this season have fared pretty poorly when facing an NFL-quality QB on the road. I know, Stafford last year laid a big dump at home in our first round of the playoffs (Thank you Matt! - Victor) but I still like the Detroit D better. Maybe not 7 points better as the preview says, but still a slight edge to Justin.
Edge: Justin (Slight)
K:
Normally I would give Kickers a push for everyone, but I noticed that Crosby has scored double digits in like 5 of the last 6 games while Connor Barth just played 2 games and this week is away from the high altitude confines of Mile-High.
Edge: Justin (Moderate)
Overall:
PJ can't say I'm jinxing him. Justin is the solid favorite due to his edge in everything but QB and questionably WR. Justin has more "outs" than PJ in that one or two of his players can have bad games and the other ones will hit home runs to compensate. PJ is pretty much all-in on Brady and has less margin for error. I think the RB matchups for Justin are too enticing, and this makes it even tougher for PJ to pull the upset.
Overall Edge: Justin (Strong)
Predicted Score that I Totally Pulled Out of a Hat: Justin 102, PJ 81
Comments