I was oh so very close in giving up following sports this week. After that monumental Nats collapse, followed by yet another fantasy week where I scored in the top 4 but was probably going to lose, I was in a major sports funk. Monday night, I went to a nearby sports bar that either serves as a money laundering front or is owned by a rich owner with money to burn. Its capacity is always half-filled at best and in the suburbs, most people watch sports in the comfort of their home instead of driving. In either case, so disgusted with the Broncos' bad breaks I left at half-time despite the fact that it was all-you-can-eat wings night. So of course, I missed watching Peyton and the Broncos deliver one of the greatest Monday Night football comebacks ever. While I did end up losing in fantasy, my faith in the sports universe was restored by the symmetry of seeing one team blow a 97% chance to win with one team coming back from a 3% chance to win. I made peace with my fantasy loss.
With that uplifting note, here are this week's rankings, with a possibly meaningless stat for each team.
1. Bill
Still manages to win despite last week being Bill's "bye" week where his best starters were out. Boom or Bust Vincent Jackson picked a good week to go boom. Only team in the league to score at least 70 points each week.
2. Tuna
As predicted, Aaron Rodgers is bouncing back from his slow start to the season, now that he gets easier matchups. Since 2009, Tuna is the only team to have scored more than 100 points at least once during the season.
3. Donny
Team depth and balance is serving him well in this 5-game winning streak, along with a few breaks in the schedule matchups. I believe Donny is the only team to have ever scored over 70 points just once during a winning streak of 4 games or more.
4. Kevin
Kevin's emulation of Katy championships (win with just QB and scrubs) still going strong. Until last week, Matt Ryan was Kevin's leading scorer each week. This week will test Kevin's team since Ryan is on a bye.
5. Lily
The second-best balanced team in the Caucasian division. But unspectacular play at QB is capping the potential of Lily's solid RBs and WRs. Number of times Victor gets a bit sad seeing Beau as Lily's icon: 834. (Beau passed away in August at age of about 11 and a half, which is very old for Great Danes).
6. Victor
Despite a 2-4 record, Victor is third in both points scored and breakdown. Breakdown percentage is 61.1%, actual win loss is 33.3%. The fact that Victor has left his top scorer on the bench in each of the 6 weeks so far may be a better explanation than the Sports Gods are just toying with Victor's spirit.
7. Andrew
The best of the "bad" teams at this point. After trade with PJ, Andrew has a more reasonably balanced team. On paper, his core four of Luck, Richardson, McCoy, and Fitzgerald are going to be a great set of keepers to start the 2013 season.
8. PJ
This team is too good to be 1-5. Four studs and respectable bench players on paper. Just a combination of bad luck in starters getting injured during the game or with facing hot teams, like Victor's situation. PJ has submitted his 1st and 11 column diligently on time this season each week, karma owes him for that at least.
9. Hai
I can't believe this team is 3-3. 2nd-to-last in points Andrew scored zero points due to an incomplete roster and still has more points for the season than Hai. Hai's team is the only one to not have scored over 65 points so far this season.
10. Katy
Lame duck management and the decline in the Eagles offense means the bottom. Since the announcement by Team Katy of their intention to leave the league, the fantasy gods have punished Team Katy with consecutive sub-50 point outings.
This week's game predictions based on MUD (Match Up Defense) analysis:
Hai (175 MUD pts) vs. Victor (144 MUD pts)
Hai's MUD rating can go a bit higher if he elects to start a non-bye kicker. Hai's running backs and QB face very forgiving defenses, while Victor is constrained due to bye weeks on a couple of his studs and top 10 defenses versus the remaining ones. Hai in an upset to further screw up Victor's differential between breakdown and win-loss record.
Bill (136 MUD) vs Katy (137 MUD)
Virtually identical MUD scores. Which means the #1 FADUCO team vs. #10 team is going to be very easy to call. The last of the Cosgroves in a cake-walk over the lame duck one.
Lily (136 MUD) vs Kevin (134 MUD).
Like Bill's match, MUD scores are at parity here. However, in this crucial Caucasian matchup for 2nd place, Kevin is missing Matt Ryan this week. Lily does have bye week issues for her WRs, but Kevin is short-handed in the two highest scoring positions of QB and defense. Lily in a tight match.
PJ (150 MUD) vs Andrew (169 MUD)
PJ finally has some favorable matchups for his starter this week. PJ also is at full strength while Andrew has to play without McCoy. The tide rolls for PJ (see what I did there Mrs. PJ?) and PJ ends his losing streak.
Tuna (81 MUD) vs Donny (185 MUD)
Match of the week, the battle royale for the Asian Division. The huge disparity in MUD scores shows Tuna has a steep hill to climb this week. He only has a favorable matchup for his defense. Donny, on the other hand, has a very favorable matchup for his Giants QB and WR. In a role reversal the Redskins fan is going to root for the Giants for fantasy but the Giants fan has to root against his boys. Donny extends his stay on top of the win-loss this week.
With that uplifting note, here are this week's rankings, with a possibly meaningless stat for each team.
1. Bill
Still manages to win despite last week being Bill's "bye" week where his best starters were out. Boom or Bust Vincent Jackson picked a good week to go boom. Only team in the league to score at least 70 points each week.
2. Tuna
As predicted, Aaron Rodgers is bouncing back from his slow start to the season, now that he gets easier matchups. Since 2009, Tuna is the only team to have scored more than 100 points at least once during the season.
3. Donny
Team depth and balance is serving him well in this 5-game winning streak, along with a few breaks in the schedule matchups. I believe Donny is the only team to have ever scored over 70 points just once during a winning streak of 4 games or more.
4. Kevin
Kevin's emulation of Katy championships (win with just QB and scrubs) still going strong. Until last week, Matt Ryan was Kevin's leading scorer each week. This week will test Kevin's team since Ryan is on a bye.
5. Lily
The second-best balanced team in the Caucasian division. But unspectacular play at QB is capping the potential of Lily's solid RBs and WRs. Number of times Victor gets a bit sad seeing Beau as Lily's icon: 834. (Beau passed away in August at age of about 11 and a half, which is very old for Great Danes).
6. Victor
Despite a 2-4 record, Victor is third in both points scored and breakdown. Breakdown percentage is 61.1%, actual win loss is 33.3%. The fact that Victor has left his top scorer on the bench in each of the 6 weeks so far may be a better explanation than the Sports Gods are just toying with Victor's spirit.
7. Andrew
The best of the "bad" teams at this point. After trade with PJ, Andrew has a more reasonably balanced team. On paper, his core four of Luck, Richardson, McCoy, and Fitzgerald are going to be a great set of keepers to start the 2013 season.
8. PJ
This team is too good to be 1-5. Four studs and respectable bench players on paper. Just a combination of bad luck in starters getting injured during the game or with facing hot teams, like Victor's situation. PJ has submitted his 1st and 11 column diligently on time this season each week, karma owes him for that at least.
9. Hai
I can't believe this team is 3-3. 2nd-to-last in points Andrew scored zero points due to an incomplete roster and still has more points for the season than Hai. Hai's team is the only one to not have scored over 65 points so far this season.
10. Katy
Lame duck management and the decline in the Eagles offense means the bottom. Since the announcement by Team Katy of their intention to leave the league, the fantasy gods have punished Team Katy with consecutive sub-50 point outings.
This week's game predictions based on MUD (Match Up Defense) analysis:
Hai (175 MUD pts) vs. Victor (144 MUD pts)
Hai's MUD rating can go a bit higher if he elects to start a non-bye kicker. Hai's running backs and QB face very forgiving defenses, while Victor is constrained due to bye weeks on a couple of his studs and top 10 defenses versus the remaining ones. Hai in an upset to further screw up Victor's differential between breakdown and win-loss record.
Bill (136 MUD) vs Katy (137 MUD)
Virtually identical MUD scores. Which means the #1 FADUCO team vs. #10 team is going to be very easy to call. The last of the Cosgroves in a cake-walk over the lame duck one.
Lily (136 MUD) vs Kevin (134 MUD).
Like Bill's match, MUD scores are at parity here. However, in this crucial Caucasian matchup for 2nd place, Kevin is missing Matt Ryan this week. Lily does have bye week issues for her WRs, but Kevin is short-handed in the two highest scoring positions of QB and defense. Lily in a tight match.
PJ (150 MUD) vs Andrew (169 MUD)
PJ finally has some favorable matchups for his starter this week. PJ also is at full strength while Andrew has to play without McCoy. The tide rolls for PJ (see what I did there Mrs. PJ?) and PJ ends his losing streak.
Tuna (81 MUD) vs Donny (185 MUD)
Match of the week, the battle royale for the Asian Division. The huge disparity in MUD scores shows Tuna has a steep hill to climb this week. He only has a favorable matchup for his defense. Donny, on the other hand, has a very favorable matchup for his Giants QB and WR. In a role reversal the Redskins fan is going to root for the Giants for fantasy but the Giants fan has to root against his boys. Donny extends his stay on top of the win-loss this week.
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