Since I was 4 for 5, and almost 5 for 5, I'm going to try to predict this week's games using my Match Up Defense (MUD) metric. But first the rankings:
1. Bill
Still #1 despite loss, since he would have beaten anyone else but Lily last week. That #2 WR spot is a bit troubling, but nothing huge to give him worry. Drew Brees won't face a good fantasy defense until week 9 - Bill's own Philadelphia Eagles.
2. Victor
The only team with a top 5 QB, RB, WR, and DST in terms of scoring average. And the #2 RBs and # WRs aren't chopped liver either. Arguably the deepest team, but poor managing did not deliver the wins during the early weeks, especially in the QB department. For a number-crunching manager like Victor, having more weeks makes data more reliable so that is in his favor.
Public Service Note: The stats tables in CBS sports calculate players' averages wrongly. It treats bye weeks as zero points, instead of ignoring them. Thus, for example, Ben Roethlisberger is showing 15.5 points average (ranked #9) instead of his true average of 20.7 (ranked #2). I corrected my spreadsheet from yesterday, but since it only affected Steelers and Colts so far, there was no material change in my message.
3. Lily
Week 4 performance is not an outlier, the only thing holding back has been Lily's insistence on starting underachieving Phil Rivers over the #2 scoring average QB (see above). However, Rivers faces the soft defense of the Saints this week, so regardless of who she starts, she'll get good QB performance.
4. Donny
Yet another team where poor managing has masked the team's strengths. On paper, solid throughout but no consistent home run hitter so far. Megatron has not generated points to date due to teams now figuring out how to cover him or pressure Stafford. Like Victor, Donny has been 1-3 in choosing the right QB for the week.
5. Kevin
Yes, he's second in both points scored and breakdown. But when you're starting Ryan Williams as your only RB and don't have bye weeks or injuries as an excuse, I cannot rank you any higher than fifth. Kevin does have 2 very good WRs, and Matty Ice is the leader for league MVP in the first quarter so far.
6. Andrew
This teams is on the verge of becoming a poor man's Kevin team. Let's see: relying on 3 WRs and a stud QB, no depth at RB. Here's a sentence almost all of us except Kevin wouldn't have typed in the start of the season: Tom Brady is a poor man's Matt Ryan. I don't know what's up with Andy Reid, but it seems Shady McCoy has been a bit underused this season. I don't think that's going to last, however.
7. Hai
Numbers 7 through 10 were a bit tough to do, since no team stood out as being blatently bad. I'm giving Hai the nod among the "bad" teams because he almost does have a top 5 QB/RB/WR/DST. Unfortunately, those studs were either on the bench or in the free agent pool when they did their damage. However, with the Cowboys and Lions both in byes, expect Hai's efficiency to improve, for this week at least.
8. Tuna
As I said in my previous post, Aaron Rodgers has seen a disappointing start because of a tough schedule. It'll get better, but not maybe this week, as Indiana is #9 in points allowed to QBs. RBs are slowing getting back from the infirmary, so Tuna's team has enough firepower to escape the cellar in the long run.
9. Katy
Promising game to earn their first win, Team Katy's almost non-existent running attack has been partially offset by some decent receiver corps and respectable QB play. I'm not sure that's enough to escape the dark well of mediocrity.
10. PJ
Sorry PJ. You are dead last in the poll due to being the only one with a 3-game losing streak. I'm not sure if your wife has banned you from participating in fantasy football after that 1st and 11, but being the only Caucasian division manager in the bottom half of the managing ratings is not a good sign.
This week's previews:
#1 Bill vs. #5 Kevin
Bill has 155 MUD, Kevin has 177 MUD (incomplete). At posting time, Kevin hasn't picked up a defense to replace the Lions on their bye. So his MUD score will even be better than its already high state. He'll need all those favorable matchups to give Bill a run for his money. However, being a no-show in the RB department barring a trade means Kevin falls just short in a good scoring affair.
#2 Victor vs. #4 Donny
Both teams have very high MUDs this week. Donny's matchup score is 192, while Victor is an astronomical 231. This indicates a very high-scoring game, one in which whoever picks the correct QB starter may emerge triumphant. I am going with the numbers here, Victor in a shootout.
#3 Lily vs. #6 Andrew
Andrew's MUD is a likely moderate 157, while Lily is 180 without a starting kicker. Lily's MUD is therefor significantly higher. That high MUD score is amplified by her #1 QB, RB, WR, and DST facing teams ranked 25th or worst. So even though the Patriots are likely to dominate over the Broncos, I am predicting a win for Lily due to those appetizing matchups.
#7 Hai vs. #9 Katy
I love how Hai the Commissioner has been savvy enough to schedule all the bad teams versus each other this week, yet Hai the Manager has kept his highest scoring RB on the bench 4 weeks in a row. Hai's MUD score is a very low 114, while Katy is at 123. Given the close scores, another factor to consider other than matchups is that Hai's Cowboys and Lions are on their bye, thus making Hai efficient by default. Hai in a low-moderate scoring win over Katy.
#8 Tuna vs. #10 PJ
Tuna's MUD score is an average-looking 140, while PJ's has a difficult 118. However, the MUD scores get closer to each other if you throw out the kicker MUD component. Furthermore, as I mentioned before, Indy has a good QB defense ranking, mostly because eams pound Indy on the ground. With Tuna's starters not fully healthy, it gives PJ a window for an upset victory, assuming his wife allows him to play.
No crazy Asian video today, just this uplifting one. I almost cried.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25305007&topic_id=17090370
1. Bill
Still #1 despite loss, since he would have beaten anyone else but Lily last week. That #2 WR spot is a bit troubling, but nothing huge to give him worry. Drew Brees won't face a good fantasy defense until week 9 - Bill's own Philadelphia Eagles.
2. Victor
The only team with a top 5 QB, RB, WR, and DST in terms of scoring average. And the #2 RBs and # WRs aren't chopped liver either. Arguably the deepest team, but poor managing did not deliver the wins during the early weeks, especially in the QB department. For a number-crunching manager like Victor, having more weeks makes data more reliable so that is in his favor.
Public Service Note: The stats tables in CBS sports calculate players' averages wrongly. It treats bye weeks as zero points, instead of ignoring them. Thus, for example, Ben Roethlisberger is showing 15.5 points average (ranked #9) instead of his true average of 20.7 (ranked #2). I corrected my spreadsheet from yesterday, but since it only affected Steelers and Colts so far, there was no material change in my message.
3. Lily
Week 4 performance is not an outlier, the only thing holding back has been Lily's insistence on starting underachieving Phil Rivers over the #2 scoring average QB (see above). However, Rivers faces the soft defense of the Saints this week, so regardless of who she starts, she'll get good QB performance.
4. Donny
Yet another team where poor managing has masked the team's strengths. On paper, solid throughout but no consistent home run hitter so far. Megatron has not generated points to date due to teams now figuring out how to cover him or pressure Stafford. Like Victor, Donny has been 1-3 in choosing the right QB for the week.
5. Kevin
Yes, he's second in both points scored and breakdown. But when you're starting Ryan Williams as your only RB and don't have bye weeks or injuries as an excuse, I cannot rank you any higher than fifth. Kevin does have 2 very good WRs, and Matty Ice is the leader for league MVP in the first quarter so far.
6. Andrew
This teams is on the verge of becoming a poor man's Kevin team. Let's see: relying on 3 WRs and a stud QB, no depth at RB. Here's a sentence almost all of us except Kevin wouldn't have typed in the start of the season: Tom Brady is a poor man's Matt Ryan. I don't know what's up with Andy Reid, but it seems Shady McCoy has been a bit underused this season. I don't think that's going to last, however.
7. Hai
Numbers 7 through 10 were a bit tough to do, since no team stood out as being blatently bad. I'm giving Hai the nod among the "bad" teams because he almost does have a top 5 QB/RB/WR/DST. Unfortunately, those studs were either on the bench or in the free agent pool when they did their damage. However, with the Cowboys and Lions both in byes, expect Hai's efficiency to improve, for this week at least.
8. Tuna
As I said in my previous post, Aaron Rodgers has seen a disappointing start because of a tough schedule. It'll get better, but not maybe this week, as Indiana is #9 in points allowed to QBs. RBs are slowing getting back from the infirmary, so Tuna's team has enough firepower to escape the cellar in the long run.
9. Katy
Promising game to earn their first win, Team Katy's almost non-existent running attack has been partially offset by some decent receiver corps and respectable QB play. I'm not sure that's enough to escape the dark well of mediocrity.
10. PJ
Sorry PJ. You are dead last in the poll due to being the only one with a 3-game losing streak. I'm not sure if your wife has banned you from participating in fantasy football after that 1st and 11, but being the only Caucasian division manager in the bottom half of the managing ratings is not a good sign.
This week's previews:
#1 Bill vs. #5 Kevin
Bill has 155 MUD, Kevin has 177 MUD (incomplete). At posting time, Kevin hasn't picked up a defense to replace the Lions on their bye. So his MUD score will even be better than its already high state. He'll need all those favorable matchups to give Bill a run for his money. However, being a no-show in the RB department barring a trade means Kevin falls just short in a good scoring affair.
#2 Victor vs. #4 Donny
Both teams have very high MUDs this week. Donny's matchup score is 192, while Victor is an astronomical 231. This indicates a very high-scoring game, one in which whoever picks the correct QB starter may emerge triumphant. I am going with the numbers here, Victor in a shootout.
#3 Lily vs. #6 Andrew
Andrew's MUD is a likely moderate 157, while Lily is 180 without a starting kicker. Lily's MUD is therefor significantly higher. That high MUD score is amplified by her #1 QB, RB, WR, and DST facing teams ranked 25th or worst. So even though the Patriots are likely to dominate over the Broncos, I am predicting a win for Lily due to those appetizing matchups.
#7 Hai vs. #9 Katy
I love how Hai the Commissioner has been savvy enough to schedule all the bad teams versus each other this week, yet Hai the Manager has kept his highest scoring RB on the bench 4 weeks in a row. Hai's MUD score is a very low 114, while Katy is at 123. Given the close scores, another factor to consider other than matchups is that Hai's Cowboys and Lions are on their bye, thus making Hai efficient by default. Hai in a low-moderate scoring win over Katy.
#8 Tuna vs. #10 PJ
Tuna's MUD score is an average-looking 140, while PJ's has a difficult 118. However, the MUD scores get closer to each other if you throw out the kicker MUD component. Furthermore, as I mentioned before, Indy has a good QB defense ranking, mostly because eams pound Indy on the ground. With Tuna's starters not fully healthy, it gives PJ a window for an upset victory, assuming his wife allows him to play.
No crazy Asian video today, just this uplifting one. I almost cried.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25305007&topic_id=17090370
Comments