Congrats to Katy and Kevin for making it to the finals this year. Both have multiple championship belts, so are not strangers to the party. However, Kevin's steady team and long history makes it seems like he's the "Establishment" team while Katy with Free Agent Pickup of the Decade Mike Vick is the brash "Outsider". As a reflection of the owners maybe, but Katy's players are definitely more flashy, as we shall see. While Katy is 6-9 in breakdown vs Kevin, she did beat him in their lone matchup this season. Both are Eagles fans, but only one after this week can claim to have influence in Andy Reid's mind with their opposing WR matchup. Let's see how the matchup stacks up:
QB: Oh, I was almost correct about the Giants being able to bottle up Vick last week. About three-quarters correct it seems. This week, Vick gets the Vikings at home, whose defense is back to its "let's fold like a cheap suit" ways. Not coincidentally, Purple Jesus has been injured in the past two games, so the Vikings won't be able to keep Vick off the field. Meanwhile, if you look at Peyton Manning's stats, you'll see a noticeable pattern: In the 9 games he's scored double digits, 7 of them were games where Austin Collie played substantial minutes. In the games where Austin Collie was not present, Manning either was quiet or got to face really bad pass defenses (Houston and Jacksonville). This week, Manning is without Collie and plays a decent passing defense (Raiders). Advantage: Katy (Strong)
RB: Donny pointed out to me that Cedric Benson usually delivers double-digit scores when he's home and next to nothing when he's away. This week, he's at home and even though it's against a decent run defense (Chargers), I think he'll contribute. Thomas Jones may vulture a TD, but he's highly volatile. For Kevin, Chris Johnson went officially back on track last week, and while the Chiefs aren't a dream matchup, they're not so pathetic either. Advantage: Kevin (Slight)
WR: Katy has the Vick - Desean connection. Very high upside there and the Vikings secondary stinks. Bess or Britt may be good for a few sure points as well. Right now, Kevin's WRs are getting healthy so he'll be playing the 3-WR offense. Andrew Johnson gets a juicy matchup vs. Denver, but Hicks faces a decent GB defense playing at home. Kevin gets the less flashy Eagle WR, but the one who actually has scored more TDs this season. The key thing for Kevin is having Maclin act as partial stopper of Katy's Vick points. It may come down to which Eagle WR gets the ball. In this, I think the matchup favors Katy a bit since she can bribe Reid with a basket of meat snacks and ham while Kevin can only offer whole-grain oats and whey or something. Advantage: Katy (Slight)
TE: Katy's Chris Cooley is going to get some yards and receptions. I'm not sure he'll get a TD this week, however. Yesterday, on the local news, they had a profile on Cooley opening a pottery shop in Leesburg selling all these pottery that he makes himself. The stuff didn't look that bad or garish, for what it's worth. Meanwhile, the bland Kevin Boss or Zach Miller will have to do for Kevin now that uber-TE Antonio Gates is out. Advantage: Katy (Moderate)
K: Again, kickers are not going to hurt either team, they're playing middle-ranking defenses. Advantage: (None)
DST: Katy has been playing DST roulette lately with mixed results. This week, she'll have to root for a team rival (Cowboys), but I'm not sure why the Patriots weren't picked up instead (they face Buffalo). Kevin's Chargers delivered for him last week, and this week get a good matchup on paper facing the Bengals. However, that's an away game and who knows what bad luck can happen to Norv Turner on the road. I'm going to say Cowboys are a bit safer but Chargers have more upside. Advantage: Kevin (Slight)
Intangibles: Some people say that Katy has been lucky with relying on Vick all season-long or receiving outlier performances (Kenny Britt anyone?). With her team on a roll, I can't see that stopping. Advantage: Katy. In years past, the team with the star fantasy player (ie. Tomlinson or Brady in '07) or an over-reliance on a single NFL team has fallen short of winning the championship to a more well-balanced team. We have this scenario again this year, so that's a plus for Kevin. On the weather front, the forecast calls for snow on Sunday. However, we saw this past Monday how badly Minnesota's defense did in the snow against a much inferior QB. Advantage: Katy. Overall Intangibles Advantage: Katy (Moderate)
Predicted Score:
Katy 84 Kevin 80
A close heart-breaking loss for Kevin that makes him question his fandom for the Eagles. This will happen when DeSean Jackson rips a 50-yarder for a TD on a reverse with 4 Vikings whiffing on tackles.
QB: Oh, I was almost correct about the Giants being able to bottle up Vick last week. About three-quarters correct it seems. This week, Vick gets the Vikings at home, whose defense is back to its "let's fold like a cheap suit" ways. Not coincidentally, Purple Jesus has been injured in the past two games, so the Vikings won't be able to keep Vick off the field. Meanwhile, if you look at Peyton Manning's stats, you'll see a noticeable pattern: In the 9 games he's scored double digits, 7 of them were games where Austin Collie played substantial minutes. In the games where Austin Collie was not present, Manning either was quiet or got to face really bad pass defenses (Houston and Jacksonville). This week, Manning is without Collie and plays a decent passing defense (Raiders). Advantage: Katy (Strong)
RB: Donny pointed out to me that Cedric Benson usually delivers double-digit scores when he's home and next to nothing when he's away. This week, he's at home and even though it's against a decent run defense (Chargers), I think he'll contribute. Thomas Jones may vulture a TD, but he's highly volatile. For Kevin, Chris Johnson went officially back on track last week, and while the Chiefs aren't a dream matchup, they're not so pathetic either. Advantage: Kevin (Slight)
WR: Katy has the Vick - Desean connection. Very high upside there and the Vikings secondary stinks. Bess or Britt may be good for a few sure points as well. Right now, Kevin's WRs are getting healthy so he'll be playing the 3-WR offense. Andrew Johnson gets a juicy matchup vs. Denver, but Hicks faces a decent GB defense playing at home. Kevin gets the less flashy Eagle WR, but the one who actually has scored more TDs this season. The key thing for Kevin is having Maclin act as partial stopper of Katy's Vick points. It may come down to which Eagle WR gets the ball. In this, I think the matchup favors Katy a bit since she can bribe Reid with a basket of meat snacks and ham while Kevin can only offer whole-grain oats and whey or something. Advantage: Katy (Slight)
TE: Katy's Chris Cooley is going to get some yards and receptions. I'm not sure he'll get a TD this week, however. Yesterday, on the local news, they had a profile on Cooley opening a pottery shop in Leesburg selling all these pottery that he makes himself. The stuff didn't look that bad or garish, for what it's worth. Meanwhile, the bland Kevin Boss or Zach Miller will have to do for Kevin now that uber-TE Antonio Gates is out. Advantage: Katy (Moderate)
K: Again, kickers are not going to hurt either team, they're playing middle-ranking defenses. Advantage: (None)
DST: Katy has been playing DST roulette lately with mixed results. This week, she'll have to root for a team rival (Cowboys), but I'm not sure why the Patriots weren't picked up instead (they face Buffalo). Kevin's Chargers delivered for him last week, and this week get a good matchup on paper facing the Bengals. However, that's an away game and who knows what bad luck can happen to Norv Turner on the road. I'm going to say Cowboys are a bit safer but Chargers have more upside. Advantage: Kevin (Slight)
Intangibles: Some people say that Katy has been lucky with relying on Vick all season-long or receiving outlier performances (Kenny Britt anyone?). With her team on a roll, I can't see that stopping. Advantage: Katy. In years past, the team with the star fantasy player (ie. Tomlinson or Brady in '07) or an over-reliance on a single NFL team has fallen short of winning the championship to a more well-balanced team. We have this scenario again this year, so that's a plus for Kevin. On the weather front, the forecast calls for snow on Sunday. However, we saw this past Monday how badly Minnesota's defense did in the snow against a much inferior QB. Advantage: Katy. Overall Intangibles Advantage: Katy (Moderate)
Predicted Score:
Katy 84 Kevin 80
A close heart-breaking loss for Kevin that makes him question his fandom for the Eagles. This will happen when DeSean Jackson rips a 50-yarder for a TD on a reverse with 4 Vikings whiffing on tackles.
Comments
I wouldn't mind losing the faduco bowl if Vick has a great day and the eagles win. One it would be nice to see the eagles win again. And in my other league I'm more of a homer so I have Vic, Maclin and the Eagles defense starting.
Thanks for keeping up the blog this year, I've enjoyed the articles. Kevin
I don't know if enough appreciation is expressed for the analysis, commentary and management of the blog. So -Thank You. Team Katy is now cursed as the one picked to win. We do better in the underdog/mocked position. We will see what happens this weekend. I know it will be torture for Billy since he will be stuck in a house with his sister obsessing about the score. I am not sure if Billy will bring positive or negative energy to the whole situation. Whatever happens I will be sitting watching football in a snowstorm stuck at the Jersey Shore.
-Team Katy
PJ