Yes, my team is a pathetic 1-5. I'm out of the playoff hunt. Going back to last year, this is a team that's only won 1 of its last 11 games. There have been many explanations offered about the Fall of the Vic Empire, which I shall try to discuss here:
Victor has spent less time on fantasy football: FACT
Increased responsibilities at work, no more cable TV, and less time spent online during weeknights have really hurt management of the waiver wire during the season. For example, I was a bit negligent in not picking up Brandon Lloyd as a handcuff to Jabbar Gaffney, though my strategy of being bullish on Denver's passing offense is correct. Also, less time watching NFL games means less time scouting how good players really are compared to the profile news updates and writeups. However, this is not a principal reason, as I felt I spent quite a bit of time on research for my drafts last year and this year.
The trade of Manning for Greene and Charles was one-sided for Kevin: FICTION Despite Peyton being the top QB so far this year, and the limited production from Greene and Charles so far, this trade can't be fully evaluated until 2-3 years down the road. In early 2010, I felt that Gore was my only keeper-worthy RB, and that there weren't any promising RBs I could draft with the 4th pick. So with the long-term in mind, I traded Manning for 2 young RBs who ended the 2009 season on a hot streak, with promise of being the featured back. Of course, these two guys later had veteran RBs come in and so are both stuck in a RBBC situation so far. But Greene and Charles still have a bright future and no one is questioning their talent. Also, one big reason why I was willing to part with Manning was that I had a prime target for his replacement, who I was sure I could get with my #4 pick. Which leads to....
Drafting Tony Romo was a mistake: FICTION
I had targeted Kevin Kolb for my #4 pick until PJ dropped Romo. I originally thought this change in strategy was a bad thing (a FACT) till I went and tried to examine what would have happened if I had picked Kolb instead of Romo, assuming Katy got Schaub and Hai got his boy Romo subsequently. I forgot that Katy still would have been able to get Vick since she still would have had #1 priority in week 1's waiver. So my what-if scenarios reverted to just having Kolb and Orton and my analysis showed that I'd still end up with a 1-5 record.
Drafting Jason Witten was a mistake: FACT
It's my 2nd round pick that was the disaster pick. If I waited till the 5th or 6th round to pick my TE, I would have ended up with Brent Celek or Chris Cooley, who are producing about the same level Witten is. I could have used that 2nd round pick on Arian Foster, and would be at least 3-3 now. And this is not wishful hindsight talking. I really was bullish on Foster. In my aforementioned non-keeper league, I picked up Foster in the 3RD ROUND, though that draft was about 2 preseason games later. And my A- grade for Lily was influenced by her getting Foster. So why didn't I pick up Foster in FADUCO? Partly because I was a bit too bullish on Dallas's passing offense, and partly to be honest, I wanted to give Andrew and Lily a chance to shore up their running backs. This would help give some competitive parity in the league and thus maintaining their long-term interest. Yeah, it's the opposite of being ruthless and proves that no good deed goes unpunished.
Lackluster Defensive team selection: FACT
Partly an offshoot of not spending enough time researching during the season on the defensive matchups. I stuck with the NO defense about 2 weeks too long, and had that disastrous Miami defense start in week 3. I think that I would have won at least 1 of my first 4 games had I gave more attention to my defenses.
Victor has spent less time on fantasy football: FACT
Increased responsibilities at work, no more cable TV, and less time spent online during weeknights have really hurt management of the waiver wire during the season. For example, I was a bit negligent in not picking up Brandon Lloyd as a handcuff to Jabbar Gaffney, though my strategy of being bullish on Denver's passing offense is correct. Also, less time watching NFL games means less time scouting how good players really are compared to the profile news updates and writeups. However, this is not a principal reason, as I felt I spent quite a bit of time on research for my drafts last year and this year.
The trade of Manning for Greene and Charles was one-sided for Kevin: FICTION Despite Peyton being the top QB so far this year, and the limited production from Greene and Charles so far, this trade can't be fully evaluated until 2-3 years down the road. In early 2010, I felt that Gore was my only keeper-worthy RB, and that there weren't any promising RBs I could draft with the 4th pick. So with the long-term in mind, I traded Manning for 2 young RBs who ended the 2009 season on a hot streak, with promise of being the featured back. Of course, these two guys later had veteran RBs come in and so are both stuck in a RBBC situation so far. But Greene and Charles still have a bright future and no one is questioning their talent. Also, one big reason why I was willing to part with Manning was that I had a prime target for his replacement, who I was sure I could get with my #4 pick. Which leads to....
Drafting Tony Romo was a mistake: FICTION
I had targeted Kevin Kolb for my #4 pick until PJ dropped Romo. I originally thought this change in strategy was a bad thing (a FACT) till I went and tried to examine what would have happened if I had picked Kolb instead of Romo, assuming Katy got Schaub and Hai got his boy Romo subsequently. I forgot that Katy still would have been able to get Vick since she still would have had #1 priority in week 1's waiver. So my what-if scenarios reverted to just having Kolb and Orton and my analysis showed that I'd still end up with a 1-5 record.
Drafting Jason Witten was a mistake: FACT
It's my 2nd round pick that was the disaster pick. If I waited till the 5th or 6th round to pick my TE, I would have ended up with Brent Celek or Chris Cooley, who are producing about the same level Witten is. I could have used that 2nd round pick on Arian Foster, and would be at least 3-3 now. And this is not wishful hindsight talking. I really was bullish on Foster. In my aforementioned non-keeper league, I picked up Foster in the 3RD ROUND, though that draft was about 2 preseason games later. And my A- grade for Lily was influenced by her getting Foster. So why didn't I pick up Foster in FADUCO? Partly because I was a bit too bullish on Dallas's passing offense, and partly to be honest, I wanted to give Andrew and Lily a chance to shore up their running backs. This would help give some competitive parity in the league and thus maintaining their long-term interest. Yeah, it's the opposite of being ruthless and proves that no good deed goes unpunished.
Lackluster Defensive team selection: FACT
Partly an offshoot of not spending enough time researching during the season on the defensive matchups. I stuck with the NO defense about 2 weeks too long, and had that disastrous Miami defense start in week 3. I think that I would have won at least 1 of my first 4 games had I gave more attention to my defenses.
Comments
Tuna