Playoff picture

Kudos to PJ and Kevin for sewing up playoff spots, and for the Asians ensuring a winning team(s) as a representative(s) in the playoffs. Before I get to the playoff chances summary, I'd like to comfort my little sister in her devastating loss to Katy. Lily was all ready to publish her own version of 1st and 11 trash-talking the Asians, but alas, that was not meant to be. Lily, you're in good company amongst those who've experienced heartbreak when facing Katy:

1. Bill - In the 2004 championship, Bill went to bed thinking he won his final against Katy. There was much celebrating in the house of Cosgrove that night. Alas, the next morning, a blocked field goal was added to Katy's score and so Katy ended up the winner by one point.

2. PJ - In a 2006 matchup, Katy already had played all her players and PJ had a 4-pt lead with his QB left to play. Unfortunately for PJ, his QB gave him -7 points on Monday night and he became another victim to Katy's dagger of a win.

3. Donny - Has a winning record against all other Asian teams, except for Katy: 3-13 record against Team Katy as of 2008. Included amongst those losses were several games where Katy still won despite scoring under 50 points. Yikes!

4. Victor - Denied his first championship in 2000 when his team, the regular season champ, imploded in the finals against Katy.

5. Lily - With a comfortable 16-pt lead going into Monday night, Katy has her TE, the lowest scoring position in FADUCO, score 17 points against the Ravens' defense. Katy's win also either delayed or prevented Bill from the playoffs.

Now, on to the playoff picture. 2 are in, 2 more out of 3 have a chance to make it.

1. PJ - Clinched the #1 Seed in the Playoffs. However, since 2001, the #1 seed has only won the championship exactly half the time. If PJ wants to go for history, he will break the record for most consecutive wins in a season if he beats Katy.

2. Kevin - Clinched the #3 seed in the playoffs, will face the Asian division winner. Week 14 match is completely irrelevant. Time to get Kristy to make your week 14 lineup Kevin.

3. Bill - Can clinch with a win, or can lose yet still make the playoffs as #4 seed if either Tuna or Katy loses their game. By the way Bill, I think you're fined $3 for losing to Donny this past week. Chance of playoff: 95.9%

4. Tuna - Can clinch with a win, OR if Katy loses as well. Chance of playoff: 87.6%

5. Katy - Needs to win AND have Tuna OR Bill lose. Chance of playoff: 16.5%.

Assumptions used:
  • Bill's breakdown vs. Victor: 8/13 (61.5%)
  • Tuna's breakdown vs. Kevin: 6/13 (46.2%)
  • Katy's breakdown vs. PJ: 3/13 (23.1%)
  • Katy doesn't overcome 60 point deficit vs. Tuna, Tuna doesn't overcome 147 point deficit vs. Bill.

Comments

Anonymous said…
You forgot the 40 point come from behind win on Mondya night earlier this year.

Team Katy
Anonymous said…
I guess it's comforting to think that you predict I am highly likely to make the playoffs. I wasn't interested in thinking about the odds so I am glad you did it for me.

I would say that my track record is such that if there is a way to screw it up I find it; so I still don't think I will make the playoffs. The FADUCO gods hate me.
Bill
Anonymous said…
I want to read the Lilly 1st and 11 Asian edition! 1st and 11 was born from bitter defeat!

Vic I need more analysis about playoff seeds. William scares me to death! Should I rest my starters? I would rather face Katy then William in 2 weeks.

PJ
Victor Donge said…
PJ, I wouldn't worry about trying to game the matchups to your favor. As I recall, Larry tried to do that one season and wasn't successful. Besides, you don't have much control since your matchup mostly depends on whether Bill wins or lose this week. I,on the other hand, can ensure Bill makes the playoffs if I field a substandard roster and hand him the win. So let the bidding for my services begin...
Anonymous said…
that's a bit unfair to Katy...and unethical...
Victor Donge said…
Sigh, sometimes me and PJ joking around just flies over peopel's heads
Anonymous said…
So true Vic, Kevin was upset also until I told him I want to make FADUCO history. 11 straight baby!
Anonymous said…
One more win and PJ will tie for the best regular season record.