I'm going to try to write one article a week related to some FADUCO statistics. I shall try to not dive too deeply and losing some of you non-math types (ie. Caucasians).
This week, I shall try to answer the question "What score do I need to have a 50% chance of winning"?
I based my survey of points scored against me in all games from 2003 to last year 2008. I think this is a respectable sample size and we've kept the scoring rules consistent during this period. The median score was 63 points. That means half the scores were higher than 63 points. So roughly, you will have a 50% chance of winning if you score 63 points against someone in the league other than Victor. The average points scored against me was slightly higher, at 65.3 points.
Now, you noticed that I said "other than Victor". To have a 50% chance to beat me, you need 74 points. That's the median of my points scored. Unless it's week 1. I'm 1-6 in week 1 games since 2003....
This week, I shall try to answer the question "What score do I need to have a 50% chance of winning"?
I based my survey of points scored against me in all games from 2003 to last year 2008. I think this is a respectable sample size and we've kept the scoring rules consistent during this period. The median score was 63 points. That means half the scores were higher than 63 points. So roughly, you will have a 50% chance of winning if you score 63 points against someone in the league other than Victor. The average points scored against me was slightly higher, at 65.3 points.
Now, you noticed that I said "other than Victor". To have a 50% chance to beat me, you need 74 points. That's the median of my points scored. Unless it's week 1. I'm 1-6 in week 1 games since 2003....
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Bill
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