Congratulations to the other three teams who made the playoffs. If you look back at my grades at the start of the season, you'll find the three highest grades all making the playoffs. However, it was a very tight race, and this was the most competitive season I think I've ever seen. Here is a quick preview of the matchups.
Bill vs. Victor
QB: Peyton faces the hapless Lions, so Victor has the edge here. However, Drew Brees is always explosive, so QB may not be where the game is decided. Advantage: Victor (slight)
RB: Victor's most heartbreaking loss this season was when Westbrook scored after Desean Jackson tossed the ball away at the 1-yard line. I'm assuming Bill is going to start Westbrook after keeping him on the bench for two consecutive 20-point+ performances. From Bill's bevy of backs, Michael Turner will probably get the other starting spot. He's good for at least 1 TD. While Steve Slaton has been Victor's best draft pick in years, Frank Gore has injury questions and Victor may be starting Pierre Thomas. If Victor starts Pierre, the New Orleans game may be an all-in moment for Bill and Victor. Advantage: Bill (strong)
WR: Victor can start two reliable WRs in Jennings and Breaston, or go for riskier upside with Kevin Walter. Bill has steady Roddy White, but scoring upside may be capped if he starts both Turner and White. Reggie Wayne has been a disappointment this season, but fantasy opponent matchup helps Bill tremendously here. If Wayne emerges against Detroit (likely), Victor's advantage of Peyton disappears. Advantage: Bill (slight)
TE: Victor for most of the season was flailing at this position. It has stabilized with the addition of John Carlson and Shockey becoming healthy. Zach Miller plays for the Raiders, so Bill's TE is a risky start. Advantage: Victor (medium)
K: Bironas is playing indoors, so I'm going with Victor here. Advantage: Victor (slight)
DST: Though Victor doesn't have any top 4 players in his QB/RB/WR slots, his defensive roster is a cornucopia of riches: Tampa, Philly, and Colts. DST is Bill's weak spot as he tries to play Free Agent pickup of the week. Though Colts have the most favorable matchup, Victor is probably starting Philadelphia due to two important reasons: 1. Bill will have to root against his beloved team's defense; and 2. It's a Monday night game and Victor has found out that not having Monday night players against an opponent with Monday night players is a traumatic experience for him this season. Advantage: Victor (medium)
Useless factoids: Bill is the only playoff participant without a championship to his name. The other three each have two titles. Victor is tied with Kevin for most FADUCO playoff appearances since 1999 (6 out of the 10 seasons).
Prediction: The New Orleans - Chicago game will be key. If the weather is good, Bill beats Victor. If conditions are snowy or rainy, Victor edges Bill. Victor probably needs a 25 point margin going into Monday night to feel safe. He won't get it as Bill rolls on to the final on Westbrook's legs.
Kevin vs. Hai
QB: Kevin's QBs have limited upside this week, while Hai's QB will be throwing the ball a lot. Judging by this past Monday night's game, Denver at Carolina will be a shootout. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is on the road against the vaunted Baltimore defense and Eli Manning faces a pretty good Dallas defense who are in a must-win situation. Advantage: Hai (medium)
RB: Kevin has some very delightful options at this position while Hai will just try to survive. Kevin has 2 studs in DeAngelo Williams and Chris Johnson, and LDT is actually relegated to the bench! Hai will start Steven Jackson and either Leron Mclain or Tashard Choice and pray one of them scores. Advantage: Kevin (large)
WR: Kevin's WRs are consistent point producers, and have a high floor (ie. they are good for at least 6 points). Hai has one WR stud (Calvin Johnson), but has to hope that he's on the bullseye with whoever starts at the other WR spot: Harrison, Colston, Santana, or Royal - it's quite a crapshoot. Advantage: Kevin (slight)
TE: Jason Witten will try to redeem himself after last week's debacle, plus Kevin has the bonus of seeing Hai root against a Cowboy. Advantage: Kevin (slight)
K: Push. Both are away outdoors against bad teams.
DST: Though I can hope that Kevin starts the Cowboys and Hai starts the Giants, it'll probably be Steelers vs. Giants. The Steelers are hot and will face a Baltimore offence whom I'm not quite sold on yet. Regardless, Hai may have to root against the Cowboys offence if he wants to pull off an upset against Kevin. Giants play very well on the road however. Advantage: Kevini (slight)
Useless Factoids: Kevin has an 11-3 breakdown record vs. Hai this season, his best against another player but a 3-5 actual historical record vs. Hai, which is Kevin's 2nd worst against other players. Before this season, Hai has either won a championship or failed to make the playoffs.
Prediction: Kevin is too hot and Hai is somewhat undermanned for this fight. Kevin advances by a knockout. Hai may be so far out of it by Sunday's night game that he can freely root for the Dallas Cowboys offense despite starting the Giants.
Bill vs. Victor
QB: Peyton faces the hapless Lions, so Victor has the edge here. However, Drew Brees is always explosive, so QB may not be where the game is decided. Advantage: Victor (slight)
RB: Victor's most heartbreaking loss this season was when Westbrook scored after Desean Jackson tossed the ball away at the 1-yard line. I'm assuming Bill is going to start Westbrook after keeping him on the bench for two consecutive 20-point+ performances. From Bill's bevy of backs, Michael Turner will probably get the other starting spot. He's good for at least 1 TD. While Steve Slaton has been Victor's best draft pick in years, Frank Gore has injury questions and Victor may be starting Pierre Thomas. If Victor starts Pierre, the New Orleans game may be an all-in moment for Bill and Victor. Advantage: Bill (strong)
WR: Victor can start two reliable WRs in Jennings and Breaston, or go for riskier upside with Kevin Walter. Bill has steady Roddy White, but scoring upside may be capped if he starts both Turner and White. Reggie Wayne has been a disappointment this season, but fantasy opponent matchup helps Bill tremendously here. If Wayne emerges against Detroit (likely), Victor's advantage of Peyton disappears. Advantage: Bill (slight)
TE: Victor for most of the season was flailing at this position. It has stabilized with the addition of John Carlson and Shockey becoming healthy. Zach Miller plays for the Raiders, so Bill's TE is a risky start. Advantage: Victor (medium)
K: Bironas is playing indoors, so I'm going with Victor here. Advantage: Victor (slight)
DST: Though Victor doesn't have any top 4 players in his QB/RB/WR slots, his defensive roster is a cornucopia of riches: Tampa, Philly, and Colts. DST is Bill's weak spot as he tries to play Free Agent pickup of the week. Though Colts have the most favorable matchup, Victor is probably starting Philadelphia due to two important reasons: 1. Bill will have to root against his beloved team's defense; and 2. It's a Monday night game and Victor has found out that not having Monday night players against an opponent with Monday night players is a traumatic experience for him this season. Advantage: Victor (medium)
Useless factoids: Bill is the only playoff participant without a championship to his name. The other three each have two titles. Victor is tied with Kevin for most FADUCO playoff appearances since 1999 (6 out of the 10 seasons).
Prediction: The New Orleans - Chicago game will be key. If the weather is good, Bill beats Victor. If conditions are snowy or rainy, Victor edges Bill. Victor probably needs a 25 point margin going into Monday night to feel safe. He won't get it as Bill rolls on to the final on Westbrook's legs.
Kevin vs. Hai
QB: Kevin's QBs have limited upside this week, while Hai's QB will be throwing the ball a lot. Judging by this past Monday night's game, Denver at Carolina will be a shootout. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is on the road against the vaunted Baltimore defense and Eli Manning faces a pretty good Dallas defense who are in a must-win situation. Advantage: Hai (medium)
RB: Kevin has some very delightful options at this position while Hai will just try to survive. Kevin has 2 studs in DeAngelo Williams and Chris Johnson, and LDT is actually relegated to the bench! Hai will start Steven Jackson and either Leron Mclain or Tashard Choice and pray one of them scores. Advantage: Kevin (large)
WR: Kevin's WRs are consistent point producers, and have a high floor (ie. they are good for at least 6 points). Hai has one WR stud (Calvin Johnson), but has to hope that he's on the bullseye with whoever starts at the other WR spot: Harrison, Colston, Santana, or Royal - it's quite a crapshoot. Advantage: Kevin (slight)
TE: Jason Witten will try to redeem himself after last week's debacle, plus Kevin has the bonus of seeing Hai root against a Cowboy. Advantage: Kevin (slight)
K: Push. Both are away outdoors against bad teams.
DST: Though I can hope that Kevin starts the Cowboys and Hai starts the Giants, it'll probably be Steelers vs. Giants. The Steelers are hot and will face a Baltimore offence whom I'm not quite sold on yet. Regardless, Hai may have to root against the Cowboys offence if he wants to pull off an upset against Kevin. Giants play very well on the road however. Advantage: Kevini (slight)
Useless Factoids: Kevin has an 11-3 breakdown record vs. Hai this season, his best against another player but a 3-5 actual historical record vs. Hai, which is Kevin's 2nd worst against other players. Before this season, Hai has either won a championship or failed to make the playoffs.
Prediction: Kevin is too hot and Hai is somewhat undermanned for this fight. Kevin advances by a knockout. Hai may be so far out of it by Sunday's night game that he can freely root for the Dallas Cowboys offense despite starting the Giants.
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