4x4 - As in I looked at the first 4 picks of the 4 playoff teams from the past 3 seasons. Essentially, I wanted to see if having a good draft to fill in your intended starters or 1st tier bench was a strong factor to making the playoffs. I defined success as the pick contributing as a starter for most of the season or used to trade for another starter. The results were very surprising - After the 1st round, the percentage of draft success was very mediocre for the playoff teams during the past 3 years. Players in parentheses were the bust picks.
2007
1st round: 3/4 success (Deuce Mcallister)
2nd round: 0/4! (Jerious Norwood, Phil Rivers, Lee Evans, Matt Leinart were the busts)
3rd round: 1/4 (Julius Jones, Todd Heap, Vernon Davis)
4th round: 2/4 (Reggie Brown, Deion Branch) (though Randy Moss was the best overall draft pick)
Total: 6/16
2006
1st round: 4/4
2nd round: 2/4 (DeAngelo Williams, Dominic Rhodes (though he was a handcuff pick))
3rd round: 3/4 (Vernand Morency)
4th round: 2/4 (Wali Lundy, Drew Bledsoe)
Total: 11/16
2005
1st round: 1/4 (Nate Burleson, Mike Anderson, JJ Arrington)
2nd round: 2/4 (Trent Green, Deshaun Foster)
3rd round: 2/4 (Darrell Jackson, Lav Coles)
4th round: 1/4 (Kerry Collins, Michael Bennett, Bills DST)
Total: 6/16
From these results, it seems that the first rounds in our keeper league aren't the most crucial factors to the success of a team. Bill made the playoffs in 05-06 but was only 2 for 8 in his draft picks! Having Tomlinson as a keeper helped him quite a bit. Of course, keepers have a much stronger impact, but it doesn't seem from the above list that teams' future keepers come from the early rounds either. What may seem to work more than early drafting is getting keepers in later rounds, executing successful trades and hitting jackpot on free agent pickups.
2007
1st round: 3/4 success (Deuce Mcallister)
2nd round: 0/4! (Jerious Norwood, Phil Rivers, Lee Evans, Matt Leinart were the busts)
3rd round: 1/4 (Julius Jones, Todd Heap, Vernon Davis)
4th round: 2/4 (Reggie Brown, Deion Branch) (though Randy Moss was the best overall draft pick)
Total: 6/16
2006
1st round: 4/4
2nd round: 2/4 (DeAngelo Williams, Dominic Rhodes (though he was a handcuff pick))
3rd round: 3/4 (Vernand Morency)
4th round: 2/4 (Wali Lundy, Drew Bledsoe)
Total: 11/16
2005
1st round: 1/4 (Nate Burleson, Mike Anderson, JJ Arrington)
2nd round: 2/4 (Trent Green, Deshaun Foster)
3rd round: 2/4 (Darrell Jackson, Lav Coles)
4th round: 1/4 (Kerry Collins, Michael Bennett, Bills DST)
Total: 6/16
From these results, it seems that the first rounds in our keeper league aren't the most crucial factors to the success of a team. Bill made the playoffs in 05-06 but was only 2 for 8 in his draft picks! Having Tomlinson as a keeper helped him quite a bit. Of course, keepers have a much stronger impact, but it doesn't seem from the above list that teams' future keepers come from the early rounds either. What may seem to work more than early drafting is getting keepers in later rounds, executing successful trades and hitting jackpot on free agent pickups.
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