Playoff Chances

I have made a rough estimate of the 5 playoff contenders' chances to make the playoffs. It would take too long to explain my methodology and it'd make your head hurt. Hai and Katy actually have a slightly lower chance than I've given, but I don't have time to calculate exactly how much less. Suffice to say, their chances are not good. So here is the end result:

Victor: 61%
Andrew: 59%
PJ: 51.5%
Hai: 15%
Katy: 13.5%

Why is PJ's chance so much higher than Hai or Katy? Because PJ would win any tiebreaker based on points scored against all 4 other teams. Andrew and Victor would win any tiebreaker against Hai or Katy. Ok, I lied. Here are some bonus breakdowns of what record the 5 teams will end up with. These percentages are more independent and are not as inter-dependent as the above probabilities.

Victor: (75% vs Larry, 50% vs Andrew)
9-5 (37.5%)
8-6 (50%)
7-7 (12.5%)

Andrew: (70% vs Katy, 50% vs Victor)
9-5 (35%)
8-6 (50%)
7-7 (15%)

PJ: (75% vs Hai, 60% vs Donny due to Favre injury)
8-6 (45%)
7-7 (45%) Note that if PJ ends up with a 7-7 record, there is about a 27% chance he'd get in the playoffs, as that is the percentage chance either Victor OR Andrew end up 7-7 as well.
6-8 (10%)

Hai: (25% vs PJ, 70% vs Larry)
8-6 (17.5%)
7-7 (60%)
6-8 (22.5%)

Katy: (30% vs Andrew, 45% vs Bill)
8-6 (13.5%)
7-7 (48%)
6-8 (38.5%)