Have RBs become devalued in Fantasy Football?

Historically, to do well in FADUCO you needed to have high-performing RBs. Thus, the near-sweep of RBs in the first round of drafts and some teams’ obsession with hoarding RBs in their roster. However, this may be a different year. It can be argued that RBs are not as important this year.

Using Sportsline’s new ability to sort scoring stats by average per game played instead of total, you can see 9 WRs with an average of 10 points or greater. There are only 7 RBs with the same average. Though missing games due to injury won’t affect the average, it can be said that the #1 RB according to average is Bryan Westbrook, so it applies to RBs as well.

The list of top RB performers is dominated by players from PJ, Kevin, Hai, Bill. However, only Kevin can make a case for a good season so far. Andrew, Katy, and Victor’s best RBs are ranked tenth or below in average score, yet they have a combined 11-4 record. That’s because Katy and Victor have a strong set of WRs while Andrew has the 2nd best QB and 3rd best defense. Tuna’s RBs are doing relatively ok, but he has the best QB and WR so far.

With the high number of RB busts this season, we may finally be seeing the impact on the rule changes a few years ago. The league increased its restrictions on the amount of contact defenders could make on receivers, thus opening up the passing game. Teams have learned it pays to go downfield, even if they are primarily a ball control offense. The result is WRs get more big play opportunities.

Also, offensive linemen got bigger but not better. As veteran pro-bowl caliber linemen retired or got injured, there haven’t been many able replacements. By chance or design, some teams have horrible quarterbacking or coaching to offset their good linemen roster (like Minnesota, San Diego, Chicago). There are very few teams with the combination of line, backfield, and coaching talent.

This may change in the second half of the season as the weather worsens for the cold-weather teams. Ironically, because the stud RB is becoming a rarer specimen, we may see more teams reach and gamble for one during drafts and waiver wire pickups. However, the shelf life for one may be a very short period.

Comments

Anonymous said…
You've over analyzed. This is an effect of RBBC being in fashion in the NFL.
Victor Donge said…
Then how would you explain certain "RBBC" players such as Marion Barber, AD, and Sammy Morris faring well this season while "Primary" RBs such as LJ, Shaun Alexander, Rudi Johnson, Cedric Benson, St. Louis RB have under-achieved?
Anonymous said…
I have the answer. It is just to good you will have to wait for 1st and 11
I think your article should have had a subtitle "Why my team sucks: It's not because I picked bad players, rather it's because of some mysterious macro trend change"
Anonymous said…
If you compare the team rushing numbers for 2007 and 2005 when the rules change went into affect the average and the median team rushing average actually went up. If you crunch the numbers for the TDs, it will come out the same. The teams are producing better rushing numbers but distributing it across more RBs.

A true engineer takes a look at the overall statistic rather then the individual cases.
POD said…
Hmm. Your analysis may be complete as well Twan. Victor's point is that the value of the RB has gone down...meaning scoring relative to the WR. I don't think have disproved Vic's theory just yet, not until you crunch the numbers for the WRs in 2005.
Anonymous said…
If take the top 3 individual rushers for 2007 and 2005 you will see that the individual contribution is a smaller percentage of the team total:

2007

L Jordan - 106/195 (55%)
J Addai - 101/142 (71%)
W Parker - 102/167 (60%)

2005

S Alexander - 117/149 (79%)
T Barber - 116/138 (84%)
L Johnson - 109/149 (73%)

RBBC is the trend the NFL is going. Both teams in the NFL championship last year had it, now everyone else is following suit.
Anonymous said…
i don't think its a question of whether wrs are scoring more or less than rbs. i've alway felt rbs are more valuable because there are fewer good rbs than there are good wrs. its an issue of supply of demand.
Victor Donge said…
Thank you for the various thoughts. I'm glad I've been able to generate thoughtful debate. Hope this helps in your other leagues.