I think this is the week where those fines start happening if you lose to a bottom-dwelling team. So be careful if you play PJ or Larry. As for the playoffs, it looks like the 4 teams above .500 have too much a lead with only 3 games to play. No seeds have been determined yet, and a 3-0 streak by a 5-6 team may propel the team to a spot.
1. Victor 9-2 (100% - already clinched playoff spot).
2. Katy 8-3 (92%) Only will fail to get a spot if a 5-6 team goes 3-0 (20% chance) and she loses 3 straight (40% chance). Using basic probability math, ends up with only a 8% chance of missing the playoffs. What happens when she gets there without McNabb is another story.
3. Bill 7-4 (89%) Faces Hai twice. Tough matchup with Victor in Week 13. Almost impossible barring an injury to LT for Bill to get swept by Hai. Even a 1-2 finish will probably ensure Bill to make the playoffs due to his points total. Despite #3 rank, trends show he'll be the highest scorer of the season.
4. Kevin 7-4 (70%). Has yet to beat an Asian team. Only plays Asian teams from this point. But that doesn't mean he'll lose all 3 games. Kevin has like a .500 overall breakdown record vs. his remaining opponents, so chances are good that he'll earn at least one win. A 0-3 streak could mean trouble if an Asian 5-6 team goes 2-1 due to lower points total.
5. Donny 5-6 (20%) Has the easiest schedule on paper of the remaing 5-6 teams. But roster has gaps and he hates his team.
6. Tuna 5-6 (15%) Also manages to avoid Bill or Victor in the final 3 weeks. Has been known to come back and clinch a spot in the final week, so can't be counted out.
7. Andrew 5-6 (10%). Loss to Katy in a very very winnable game really hurt his chances. If (big If) Andrew can beat Victor in week 12, he still faces 2 Asian teams who are scrambling for a possible spot too.
8. Hai 5-6 (1%). Probably needs to sweep Bill. Bill is currently 10-1 vs Hai in breakdown, so let's assume Hai has a 10% chance of beating Bill in ONE game. 10% * 10% = 1%. And that's being generous when I gave Hai the assumption he'll beat Andrew (not a sure thing).
1. Victor 9-2 (100% - already clinched playoff spot).
2. Katy 8-3 (92%) Only will fail to get a spot if a 5-6 team goes 3-0 (20% chance) and she loses 3 straight (40% chance). Using basic probability math, ends up with only a 8% chance of missing the playoffs. What happens when she gets there without McNabb is another story.
3. Bill 7-4 (89%) Faces Hai twice. Tough matchup with Victor in Week 13. Almost impossible barring an injury to LT for Bill to get swept by Hai. Even a 1-2 finish will probably ensure Bill to make the playoffs due to his points total. Despite #3 rank, trends show he'll be the highest scorer of the season.
4. Kevin 7-4 (70%). Has yet to beat an Asian team. Only plays Asian teams from this point. But that doesn't mean he'll lose all 3 games. Kevin has like a .500 overall breakdown record vs. his remaining opponents, so chances are good that he'll earn at least one win. A 0-3 streak could mean trouble if an Asian 5-6 team goes 2-1 due to lower points total.
5. Donny 5-6 (20%) Has the easiest schedule on paper of the remaing 5-6 teams. But roster has gaps and he hates his team.
6. Tuna 5-6 (15%) Also manages to avoid Bill or Victor in the final 3 weeks. Has been known to come back and clinch a spot in the final week, so can't be counted out.
7. Andrew 5-6 (10%). Loss to Katy in a very very winnable game really hurt his chances. If (big If) Andrew can beat Victor in week 12, he still faces 2 Asian teams who are scrambling for a possible spot too.
8. Hai 5-6 (1%). Probably needs to sweep Bill. Bill is currently 10-1 vs Hai in breakdown, so let's assume Hai has a 10% chance of beating Bill in ONE game. 10% * 10% = 1%. And that's being generous when I gave Hai the assumption he'll beat Andrew (not a sure thing).
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