This year, the league seems to have been re-invigorated with the introduction of 3 new owners. They all performed well, at least in the points department. But after the dust has settled, the 2 members of the Farrell Clan stand above all others in this clash. One, the most decorated franchise in FADUCO history. The other one, a coach who until now has been mostly an afterthought come playoff time. Let's break down Kevin and PJ's teams:
QB:
Technically Andrew Luck is the top performing QB, but he has cooled off a bit since his bye week. He's "only" averaging 18.4 points in his past 5 games, with only 1 game being over 20. He faces a somewhat decent but unpredictable Cowboys defense. I expected better from Tom Brady, but he's also only averaging 14.4 points since the same bye week as Luck. He does get a juicy opponent at the Jets, but they sometimes play him tough, so there is no 20 point guarantee. New England has been pretty good at running the ball since getting Lagarette Blount, so I don't think the ceiling will be high for Brady. There is a greater chance of a shootout for Luck vs. the Cowboys, thus Kevin has the advantage.
Advantage: Kevin (slight)
RB:
In years past, Kevin has succeeded with just one average RB to start. This year, he's still using only one RB, but what a RB. Leveon Bell could be the #1 pick in most fantasy drafts next year. There's no hotter RB in the NFL right now, he has 4 straight games of 20+ points. CBS Sports has a proven record of inflating scoring projections but I think they're actually not overstating the 20 points for Bell this week. For PJ, I think Marshawn Lynch has some injury affecting his play. He hasn't gone Beast Mode in the last 5 games, averaging only about 11.6 points. I can somewhat understand why PJ is refusing to start Joique Bell (14.4 past 5 games), and going with Tre Mason instead (11.8 past 5 games, but 4 of them under that average) due to a more favorable matchup, but he's risking the higher upside at the cost of a lower floor. Kevin, despite only have one RB, could well outscore PJ in the RB department.
Advantage: PJ (slight, only because he has 2 RBs vs. 1 RB for Kevin)
WR:
On Kevin's side: the #3, #7, and #11 WRs. On PJ's side: the #12 and #23 WR. Quite the mismatch on paper. But Demaryius Thomas and Jeremy Maclin have underperformed in the past 5 weeks, and AJ Green is coming off a 4-point performance. On the other hand, PJ's WRs haven't been beacons of light either. They both average 8 points or less over the same time period. Wallace did have his best game of the season last week, but I don't expect 2 good weeks in a row from him. I expect one of Kevin's WRs (most likely Maclin as he's going against the Redskins "secondary") to explode this week. PJ may not be able to match that, but I don't think Cobb and Wallace will have horrible games.
Advantage: Kevin (moderate)
TE:
Both teams have played revolving TE this year. I'm not going to even guess which generic TE both have will do better. Wait a minute...Kevin actually started a player from last night's horrible offering of a game? Wow, he must have been really desperate. But maybe not as desperate as PJ starting a TE who has to help block against JJ Watt instead of running routes.
Advantage: Neither
K:
Another high-volatility, low-payoff position. Guess I'm going with the guy who almost shares the name of my nephew, and plays for the Broncos as well.
Advantage: PJ (Slight)
DST:
OMG, another participant from last night's game. Ballsy decision to start Jaguars, PJ. I admit 10 points is about 4 more points than I was expecting. For Kevin, the Ravens this time won't be playing at home, though they do face a Houston offense with QB question marks. Ravens have averaged 8.9 points on the road, but have only scored less than 6 points once. So they're pretty low-variance and this is yet another negligible advantage from either team.
Advantage: Neither
Overall:
I came into this article thinking Kevin had a major edge. But after going through the numbers and roster, I think that while Kevin is still the favorite, he doesn't have a dominant advantage over PJ. I'm not optimistic that either team will score over 100 points this week. Since week 9, Kevin has alternated scoring over 100 with being under 100 the following week. PJ, in line with New England passing less, has failed to even go over 90 points in the last 5 weeks. So my guess is that we will see something along the lines of a moderate-scoring game. But I'll leave the concession speech to Kevin for PJ to write this week.
Kevin 94, PJ 82
QB:
Technically Andrew Luck is the top performing QB, but he has cooled off a bit since his bye week. He's "only" averaging 18.4 points in his past 5 games, with only 1 game being over 20. He faces a somewhat decent but unpredictable Cowboys defense. I expected better from Tom Brady, but he's also only averaging 14.4 points since the same bye week as Luck. He does get a juicy opponent at the Jets, but they sometimes play him tough, so there is no 20 point guarantee. New England has been pretty good at running the ball since getting Lagarette Blount, so I don't think the ceiling will be high for Brady. There is a greater chance of a shootout for Luck vs. the Cowboys, thus Kevin has the advantage.
Advantage: Kevin (slight)
RB:
In years past, Kevin has succeeded with just one average RB to start. This year, he's still using only one RB, but what a RB. Leveon Bell could be the #1 pick in most fantasy drafts next year. There's no hotter RB in the NFL right now, he has 4 straight games of 20+ points. CBS Sports has a proven record of inflating scoring projections but I think they're actually not overstating the 20 points for Bell this week. For PJ, I think Marshawn Lynch has some injury affecting his play. He hasn't gone Beast Mode in the last 5 games, averaging only about 11.6 points. I can somewhat understand why PJ is refusing to start Joique Bell (14.4 past 5 games), and going with Tre Mason instead (11.8 past 5 games, but 4 of them under that average) due to a more favorable matchup, but he's risking the higher upside at the cost of a lower floor. Kevin, despite only have one RB, could well outscore PJ in the RB department.
Advantage: PJ (slight, only because he has 2 RBs vs. 1 RB for Kevin)
WR:
On Kevin's side: the #3, #7, and #11 WRs. On PJ's side: the #12 and #23 WR. Quite the mismatch on paper. But Demaryius Thomas and Jeremy Maclin have underperformed in the past 5 weeks, and AJ Green is coming off a 4-point performance. On the other hand, PJ's WRs haven't been beacons of light either. They both average 8 points or less over the same time period. Wallace did have his best game of the season last week, but I don't expect 2 good weeks in a row from him. I expect one of Kevin's WRs (most likely Maclin as he's going against the Redskins "secondary") to explode this week. PJ may not be able to match that, but I don't think Cobb and Wallace will have horrible games.
Advantage: Kevin (moderate)
TE:
Both teams have played revolving TE this year. I'm not going to even guess which generic TE both have will do better. Wait a minute...Kevin actually started a player from last night's horrible offering of a game? Wow, he must have been really desperate. But maybe not as desperate as PJ starting a TE who has to help block against JJ Watt instead of running routes.
Advantage: Neither
K:
Another high-volatility, low-payoff position. Guess I'm going with the guy who almost shares the name of my nephew, and plays for the Broncos as well.
Advantage: PJ (Slight)
DST:
OMG, another participant from last night's game. Ballsy decision to start Jaguars, PJ. I admit 10 points is about 4 more points than I was expecting. For Kevin, the Ravens this time won't be playing at home, though they do face a Houston offense with QB question marks. Ravens have averaged 8.9 points on the road, but have only scored less than 6 points once. So they're pretty low-variance and this is yet another negligible advantage from either team.
Advantage: Neither
Overall:
I came into this article thinking Kevin had a major edge. But after going through the numbers and roster, I think that while Kevin is still the favorite, he doesn't have a dominant advantage over PJ. I'm not optimistic that either team will score over 100 points this week. Since week 9, Kevin has alternated scoring over 100 with being under 100 the following week. PJ, in line with New England passing less, has failed to even go over 90 points in the last 5 weeks. So my guess is that we will see something along the lines of a moderate-scoring game. But I'll leave the concession speech to Kevin for PJ to write this week.
Kevin 94, PJ 82
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