2012 FADUCO Bowl Preview

This weekend marks the final week of the FADUCO 2012 season. Facing each other in the FADUCO bowl are Kevin, who’s been to the final the most times out of all the teams in the league, and Lily, who’s here for the second year in a row. While both teams have not been juggernauts during the regular season, they have been very efficient, coming in at 3^rd and 2^nd in efficiency respectively.  They have also proved that you can make it far despite weaknesses in certain roster spots. For Kevin, running back play has been atrocious most weeks, while Lily has no stud QB. However, they both have strengths that the other teams in the league are hard pressed to match. Kevin’s WR corps is the cream of the crop, while Lily has two dependable stalwarts in Arian Foster and the 49er defense.  Here is the breakdown position by position:

QB – Kevin’s Matt Ryan has cooled down quite a bit in the second half, but is still capable of 20 point outings.  Lily’s Ben Roethlisberger delivered 2 decent weeks since his return from injury. However, he is a perennial mid-game injury risk. The wildcard in all of this is that the best QB may be on the bench for Kevin: Russell Wilson.  In terms of matchup, Matt Ryan is facing a Detroit defense who have nothing to play for, while Lily’s Roethlisberger is facing a better Cincy defense still aiming for a playoff spot. EDGE: Kevin (slight)

RB  - Arian Foster is the 2^nd best RB in the league, with only 3 weeks of sub-double digit production and his lowest output has been 7 points. That’s as dependable as a Subaru. The Law Firm has also been pretty solid in the last few weeks, pounding 5 above-average weeks in the last seven. Kevin, meanwhile has a wildly inconsistent Chris Johnson and little else. When you have to start Shonn Greene in the final, that’s not a good sign. Lily’s players do have to face slightly tougher defenses this week, but no one that scary. EDGE: Lily (major)

WR – Kevin’s Brandon Marshall AJ Green are #1 and #2 in average scoring for WRs respectively. You can’t have a better WR ranking for your two receivers.  They have carried Kevin’s team during the second half.  For Lily, Eric Decker is a boom-or-bust player, and since he was a boom last week, Peyton Manning may look to Demarius Thomas more to evenly distribute the glory this week. Steve Johnson or James Jones aren’t studs, though Jones has a high upside as a Packer. EDGE: Kevin (major)

TE -  This hasn’t really been the year of the TE, unlike last year, so the position hasn’t mattered much. Jimmy Graham for Kevin has been the 2^nd best TE, so that’s good for Kevin. As a sign on how TEs don’t score as much this season, Graham hasn’t had a TD in the last 4 weeks but still resides near the top of the TE rankings. That’s bad for Kevin.  For Lily, Antonio Gates seems washed up, and Dallas Clark probably resides in the same nursing home. That’s a worse situation for Lily. EDGE: Kevin (moderate)

K:  Kevin’s and Lily’s kickers both face each other in real life, so they’ll be kicking in dome conditions.  I’d give the slight edge to Jason Hanson as the game is at Detroit.  People still alive when Jason Hanson started kicking in Detroit: Kurt Cobain, Richard Nixon, the elder George Bush’s mom. EDGE:  Lily (slight)

DST:  49ers have the best defense in the NFL in real-life, but in fantasy, they are only ranked 6^th. Still, they have given only one bad outing over the last 5 weeks. More importantly, they have given Lily the luxury of an automatic start. Kevin, on the other hand, has 3 options, all with issues this week. The Bengals have scored the most of the 3 over the last 5 weeks, even higher than the 49ers. However, they face the Steelers on the road. The Dolphins have an attractive matchup vs. Buffalo, but Buffalo can score points on you in random games. Finally, the Colts are an intriguing pick-up since they face the Chiefs, who are dead last in defense matchups.  If Kevin chooses the right one, he’ll be on his way to a record 4^th championship. EDGE: Push

The MUD scores show that Kevin has the strong edge, 146 versus 98. On paper, Kevin is going to be the favorite as I’ve just elaborated in the discussion above. BUT, there is one significant factor in play here that I haven’t mentioned yet: Beau.

Beau, Lily’s Great Dane, passed away a few weeks before the football season.  While almost as big as a pony, he was remarkably gentle with little kids. Every time I came to visit Lily, Beau would just light up and come to greet me, laying his big head by my waist. Even in his final days, when his legs were too weak for him to stand for long, he’d get up and walked to me, swinging his tail and break in a dog smile as a welcome. I’d like to think that Beau’s spirit somehow helped Lily’s team this year. Her team had to endure Phil Rivers for most of the time, yet somehow in the QB-centric league of ours, she’s in the playoffs. Also, who was facing Andrew when he went AWOL that week? Lily. Despite having the lowest playoff odds, Lily made it to the finals. Lily insisted on keeping her team name at the start of the season, I guess as a tribute to Beau. Good karma happened, it seems.  

So yes, I expect Kevin to win, but sometimes, the football gods are sentimental, and so if Lily does win, it’ll be because of an old dog with a big heart.