Before we dive into my analysis of which QBs have performed to expectations vs. the defense they face, we bring you the Verizon Call of the Week:
"Lily vs Bill: Both have favorable matchups this week for their players. Expect a high-scoring affair where the loser would have won in like 3 other games but had the bad luck to face one another this week. Since Lily's matchup score is the highest one this week, I'm predicting an upset to halt Bill's undefeated streak."
OK, so Bill would have won in each of the other 4 games. I would have been 5 for 5 if not for Tuna getting screwed by the rules and not being able to pick up Kaeding's replacement. He would have beaten Donny had he picked up Nick Novak. Honorable Mention for Call of the Week is PJ for benching Tony Romo (though the detailed analysis below will show you why that's an easy call).
Now, on to my detailed study of the 1st quarter performance of QBs. I downloaded into a spreadsheet the weekly scoring of the top 32 QBs. Then, for the QBs who are on rosters, I attempted to see which ones have overachieved, performed to the level of the defense they face, or underachieved. In golf terms, which ones put up bogeys, pars, or birdies. Think of playing a golf course, if you face a difficult hole, you aren't expected to score well.
To do so, CBS Sports gives the current fantasy rankings of the defense QBs face. For example, the Falcons are the #8 defense fantasy-wise against QBs. Then, I set thresholds on what ranking would constitute an good defense, an average defense, and a bad one. I also set what I would expect to be a reasonable score by a QB against each type of defense (the par), and an overachieving score against said type of defense (the birdie). If you score below the reasonable limit, you get bogey.
Here is the summary of my results, in order of average QB score for a week:
No suprise that Ryan and RG3 are overachievers. However, the data gets more interesting after them. Brees and Fitzpatrick, #3 and #4 in QB scoring, have not faced a good defense yet so far. In Brees's case, he's had the benefit of 3 bad defenses, while Fitzpatrick has been very consistent with performing to expectations. Peyton, while tied for 7 in actual scoring, has outperformed expectations given the quality of opposition he's faced. Cam Newton has been very inconsistent and unpredictable, doing badly against average defenses but putting up good numbers versus a good defense. Aaron Rodgers is not a bust. He's just had to face a tough schedule (the #1 and #2 fantasy QB defenses) so far. Expect Aaron Rodgers to move up in scoring as the schedule gets easier.
Bottom line, you can use this list to help you identify which QBs will perform to expectations if you use matchup as a starting decision criteria.
I shall email the full detailed spreadsheet in case you want to dive deeper in the numbers. You can also play around with my criteria and threshold assumptions to come up with your own results. It's a lot more difficult to get data for free agent QBs since I think the fantasy defense rankings only show up in the teams' roster page.
"Lily vs Bill: Both have favorable matchups this week for their players. Expect a high-scoring affair where the loser would have won in like 3 other games but had the bad luck to face one another this week. Since Lily's matchup score is the highest one this week, I'm predicting an upset to halt Bill's undefeated streak."
OK, so Bill would have won in each of the other 4 games. I would have been 5 for 5 if not for Tuna getting screwed by the rules and not being able to pick up Kaeding's replacement. He would have beaten Donny had he picked up Nick Novak. Honorable Mention for Call of the Week is PJ for benching Tony Romo (though the detailed analysis below will show you why that's an easy call).
Now, on to my detailed study of the 1st quarter performance of QBs. I downloaded into a spreadsheet the weekly scoring of the top 32 QBs. Then, for the QBs who are on rosters, I attempted to see which ones have overachieved, performed to the level of the defense they face, or underachieved. In golf terms, which ones put up bogeys, pars, or birdies. Think of playing a golf course, if you face a difficult hole, you aren't expected to score well.
To do so, CBS Sports gives the current fantasy rankings of the defense QBs face. For example, the Falcons are the #8 defense fantasy-wise against QBs. Then, I set thresholds on what ranking would constitute an good defense, an average defense, and a bad one. I also set what I would expect to be a reasonable score by a QB against each type of defense (the par), and an overachieving score against said type of defense (the birdie). If you score below the reasonable limit, you get bogey.
Here is the summary of my results, in order of average QB score for a week:
| Player | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Ryan, Matt QB ATL | Birdie | Par | Birdie | Birdie |
| Griffin III, Robert QB WAS | Par | Birdie | Birdie | Par |
| Brees, Drew QB NO | Par | Par | Par | Birdie |
| Fitzpatrick, Ryan QB BUF | Par | Par | Par | Par |
| Brady, Tom QB NE | Par | Par | Par | Birdie |
| Dalton, Andy QB CIN | Par | Birdie | Par | Par |
| Flacco, Joe QB BAL | Par | Par | Par | Par |
| Manning, Peyton QB DEN | Par | Par | Birdie | Birdie |
| Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT | Par | Par | Birdie | |
| Rodgers, Aaron QB GB | Par | Par | Par | Birdie |
| Schaub, Matt QB HOU | Par | Bogey | Birdie | Par |
| Manning, Eli QB NYG | Par | Par | Par | Birdie |
| Newton, Cam QB CAR | Bogey | Par | Bogey | Birdie |
| Vick, Michael QB PHI | Bogey | Birdie | Par | Par |
| Rivers, Philip QB SD | Bogey | Par | Bogey | Bogey |
| Luck, Andrew QB IND | Par | Par | Par | |
| Stafford, Matthew QB DET | Par | Bogey | Bogey | Par |
| Cutler, Jay QB CHI | Par | Bogey | Par | Par |
| Romo, Tony QB DAL | Birdie | Par | Bogey | Bogey |
No suprise that Ryan and RG3 are overachievers. However, the data gets more interesting after them. Brees and Fitzpatrick, #3 and #4 in QB scoring, have not faced a good defense yet so far. In Brees's case, he's had the benefit of 3 bad defenses, while Fitzpatrick has been very consistent with performing to expectations. Peyton, while tied for 7 in actual scoring, has outperformed expectations given the quality of opposition he's faced. Cam Newton has been very inconsistent and unpredictable, doing badly against average defenses but putting up good numbers versus a good defense. Aaron Rodgers is not a bust. He's just had to face a tough schedule (the #1 and #2 fantasy QB defenses) so far. Expect Aaron Rodgers to move up in scoring as the schedule gets easier.
Bottom line, you can use this list to help you identify which QBs will perform to expectations if you use matchup as a starting decision criteria.
I shall email the full detailed spreadsheet in case you want to dive deeper in the numbers. You can also play around with my criteria and threshold assumptions to come up with your own results. It's a lot more difficult to get data for free agent QBs since I think the fantasy defense rankings only show up in the teams' roster page.
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