There hasn't been much turnover for starting running backs in the NFL at the start of this season. About 25 teams are pretty much returning incumbent starters, though some of these have a new #2 RB who's sharing a significant number of carries. Here is my quick analysis of the other 7 teams' #1 RB who may develop into the next Michael Turner if you're lucky.
1. Broncos - Knoshown Moreno will be the starter by week 4, but Denver will probably employ some form of running back by committee given coach McDaniel's previous tenure in New England. Has the best college pedigree amongst the notable rookie RBs. Keeper material but will be inconsistent like Portis was in his rookie season.
2. Buccaneers - Derrick Ward has the track record of the last couple of years in NY and has shown he can get 1000 yards. However, TB's offensive line is inferior to NY's. What's worse is that there is a new regime there, so it may take time for the offense to gel. Of course, the experts said that about Atlanta last year as well. But I don't expect Tampa to be the new Atlanta this year. Their schedule is much more difficult than what Atlanta enjoyed last year - 4 of their first 5 games are against NFC East teams and they also have the privilege of facing the AFC East. Draft as sub with upside but don't rely on him to be your #2 starter.
3. Cardinals - Beanie Wells is getting pub as the favorite to come in and be the number one RB. However, this means he will be the number 3 scoring option in the pass-crazy offense. He also has to learn how to block, something most rookie RBs struggle in their first year. Another bearish factor is that Wells comes from the Big Ten, whose RBs aren't exactly known for their speed and lately, have mostly been disappointments in the NFL. Durability is also a concern, he was more Chrysler than Toyota in terms of reliability in college. Don't reach for him in your drafts.
4. Patriots - The Pats have about as many members in their running back committee as the former Soviet Politburo did. And like those old fogies, you have guys like Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris. Whoever becomes the nominal starter isn't worth drafting until you have all your starters filled out. But you all knew that.
5. Raiders - McFadden is not quite the new starter but he wasn't really the official starter when he got injured last year. So I'm including him on this list. Of course, as with anything on the Raiders, it's a high-risk medium-reward pick that's underneath the efficient investing curve. There are other running backs sharing time and the coaching situation is, to put it midly, turbulent. Plus, he'll face a lot of 8-man fronts if JaMarcus Russell is the starter. He's too talented to ignore, but you need a few safe picks in your roster to balance this pick.
6. Ravens - Ray Rice has been a bit under the radar in my mock drafts and the default rankings. He's considered a bit too small but gained more weight this offseason. He surpassed McGahee on the depth chart, and while LeRon McClain may vulture goal-line TDs, McClain is now only the fullback. Rice has breakout potential since the Ravens O-line is improving and he has a solid coaching and organizational environment. He's a good value pick, but if he starts to perform in the next couple of preseason games, he may get noticed on too many people's radar and it'll be harder to snag him.
7. Saints - Pierre Thomas is now primary heavy-duty RB for the Saints, but already is "fully-priced" by the market with most tabbing him a #2 back on account of his performance in the last third of last season. Also, since I already have him in FADUCO, there isn't much to discuss. He enjoys the luxury of not having to face 8-man fronts given the Saints' passing attack. Can be a stud, especially in non-yardage leagues. Worth drafting early 2nd round.
1. Broncos - Knoshown Moreno will be the starter by week 4, but Denver will probably employ some form of running back by committee given coach McDaniel's previous tenure in New England. Has the best college pedigree amongst the notable rookie RBs. Keeper material but will be inconsistent like Portis was in his rookie season.
2. Buccaneers - Derrick Ward has the track record of the last couple of years in NY and has shown he can get 1000 yards. However, TB's offensive line is inferior to NY's. What's worse is that there is a new regime there, so it may take time for the offense to gel. Of course, the experts said that about Atlanta last year as well. But I don't expect Tampa to be the new Atlanta this year. Their schedule is much more difficult than what Atlanta enjoyed last year - 4 of their first 5 games are against NFC East teams and they also have the privilege of facing the AFC East. Draft as sub with upside but don't rely on him to be your #2 starter.
3. Cardinals - Beanie Wells is getting pub as the favorite to come in and be the number one RB. However, this means he will be the number 3 scoring option in the pass-crazy offense. He also has to learn how to block, something most rookie RBs struggle in their first year. Another bearish factor is that Wells comes from the Big Ten, whose RBs aren't exactly known for their speed and lately, have mostly been disappointments in the NFL. Durability is also a concern, he was more Chrysler than Toyota in terms of reliability in college. Don't reach for him in your drafts.
4. Patriots - The Pats have about as many members in their running back committee as the former Soviet Politburo did. And like those old fogies, you have guys like Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris. Whoever becomes the nominal starter isn't worth drafting until you have all your starters filled out. But you all knew that.
5. Raiders - McFadden is not quite the new starter but he wasn't really the official starter when he got injured last year. So I'm including him on this list. Of course, as with anything on the Raiders, it's a high-risk medium-reward pick that's underneath the efficient investing curve. There are other running backs sharing time and the coaching situation is, to put it midly, turbulent. Plus, he'll face a lot of 8-man fronts if JaMarcus Russell is the starter. He's too talented to ignore, but you need a few safe picks in your roster to balance this pick.
6. Ravens - Ray Rice has been a bit under the radar in my mock drafts and the default rankings. He's considered a bit too small but gained more weight this offseason. He surpassed McGahee on the depth chart, and while LeRon McClain may vulture goal-line TDs, McClain is now only the fullback. Rice has breakout potential since the Ravens O-line is improving and he has a solid coaching and organizational environment. He's a good value pick, but if he starts to perform in the next couple of preseason games, he may get noticed on too many people's radar and it'll be harder to snag him.
7. Saints - Pierre Thomas is now primary heavy-duty RB for the Saints, but already is "fully-priced" by the market with most tabbing him a #2 back on account of his performance in the last third of last season. Also, since I already have him in FADUCO, there isn't much to discuss. He enjoys the luxury of not having to face 8-man fronts given the Saints' passing attack. Can be a stud, especially in non-yardage leagues. Worth drafting early 2nd round.
Comments
pj
According to Mike and Mike morning show most likely RB to share carries.
pj