Semi-final Matchup #1: Hai vs. Tuna
QB: Carson Palmer has been the best pick this season, and Cinncinati needs to win this game to stay in the hunt for a first round bye. However, Buffalo’s run defense sucks so Palmer may not need to throw many TDs. Hai does need to rely on this position to produce a significant amount of his points. As for Garrard, he has been steady, delivering around 10 points every week against bad teams. With Houston on tap this week, Garrard will continue that trend. Tuna is probably not asking any more from him. On paper, Hai has the big advantage, but expectations-wise, it’s a push.
RBs: Major questions for both teams, and it shows as both are just starting one. For Hai, Edge probably won’t play for a significant part of the game. Indianapolis is going to use very basic plays and has no motivation to win. Steven Jackson has some injury questions and hasn’t produced much in the last half of the season. Hai’s bench is also weak this particular week. Rhodes may produce, but that’s a high risk. Cedric Houston faces a revived Pats D that checkmated Cadillac last week. Chris Brown plays for a pass-wacky Tennessee team. Tuna also is unsettled at RB with the news that Lamont Jordan is doubtful. McGahee will probably not see that many carries once Cincy jumps to a big lead over Buffalo. Ronnie Brown is not starting. Slight edge to Hai given Jackson will face a very accommodating 49er defense doing its part to keep Reggie Bush in California.
WRs: The Math adds up in Tuna’s favor: One stud WR, one steady producer, and one 2nd-half fading WR > One rejuvenated WR, one hurt WR, and one 2nd-half fading WR. Larry Fitzgerald will get his points, and Roy Williams has been the lone bright spot for the Lions. Burress may not produce, though. As for Hai, Santana Moss is not pro-bowl worthy if you examine his last 8 games. Darrell Jackson is a safe start, though. The wildcard is Randy Moss. Hobbled and facing Champ Bailey at Mile-high, things don’t look good. But he may be good for a TD or two. If this was a yardage league, strong advantage to Tuna. But it’s not, so Tuna has a more moderate edge here.
TE: Todd Heap should have been in the Pro Bowl instead of Tony Gonzalez. He’s been the only viable weapon on the Baltimore D (though their rookie WR is making some noise now), while Gonzalez has had the luxury of opposing safeties and linebackers paying attention to Larry Johnson. Witten has been good and is finally meeting preseason expectations. But he faces a slightly tougher defense. Slight advantage for Tuna.
K: Both are going to the Pro-bowl. Both are playing at home. It’s a push of a crapshoot.
DST: This is where it gets veeeery interesting. The possible difference in the match may be how Hai picks his defense. Tuna is starting the now-deadly NE Defense in anticipation of the Jets matchup. Indy Colts makes bigger plays, but they may be taking the day off against the Seahawks. Indy has been known to hide their "A" plays in late regular season, no-stake games if there was any possibility of the Colts meeting the other team in the playoffs. Well, there’s quite a strong chance Indy may meet Seattle in that ending playoff game called the Super Bowl. Anyway, back to Hai. He can start the Giants and force Tuna to be conflicted in his rooting for the Giants. This would also hedge Hai if Santana Moss has a poor game. Or he could start the Panthers and allow himself to be conflicted, as the Panthers face the Cowboys in a must-win game for both. If Tuna was starting Brunell, Hai would have a better reason to sit the Giants as per the Andrew Helper Monkey Defense rule. Right now, however, there is this one tie-breaker to use: Go with the team that has the hotter cheerleaders. Umm, the Giants have none. The Panthers, well, you know what their cheerleaders are like. I’d still give a slight edge to Tuna, as the Pats are trending fuego while both Giants and Panthers have been volatile.
Overall summary: It’s not going to be a very high scoring game. 60 points may be enough to win. The Sportsline may show Hai to have a material advantage, but I think Tuna is set up better than Hai to score during this one particular week due to team dynamics and matchups.
QB: Carson Palmer has been the best pick this season, and Cinncinati needs to win this game to stay in the hunt for a first round bye. However, Buffalo’s run defense sucks so Palmer may not need to throw many TDs. Hai does need to rely on this position to produce a significant amount of his points. As for Garrard, he has been steady, delivering around 10 points every week against bad teams. With Houston on tap this week, Garrard will continue that trend. Tuna is probably not asking any more from him. On paper, Hai has the big advantage, but expectations-wise, it’s a push.
RBs: Major questions for both teams, and it shows as both are just starting one. For Hai, Edge probably won’t play for a significant part of the game. Indianapolis is going to use very basic plays and has no motivation to win. Steven Jackson has some injury questions and hasn’t produced much in the last half of the season. Hai’s bench is also weak this particular week. Rhodes may produce, but that’s a high risk. Cedric Houston faces a revived Pats D that checkmated Cadillac last week. Chris Brown plays for a pass-wacky Tennessee team. Tuna also is unsettled at RB with the news that Lamont Jordan is doubtful. McGahee will probably not see that many carries once Cincy jumps to a big lead over Buffalo. Ronnie Brown is not starting. Slight edge to Hai given Jackson will face a very accommodating 49er defense doing its part to keep Reggie Bush in California.
WRs: The Math adds up in Tuna’s favor: One stud WR, one steady producer, and one 2nd-half fading WR > One rejuvenated WR, one hurt WR, and one 2nd-half fading WR. Larry Fitzgerald will get his points, and Roy Williams has been the lone bright spot for the Lions. Burress may not produce, though. As for Hai, Santana Moss is not pro-bowl worthy if you examine his last 8 games. Darrell Jackson is a safe start, though. The wildcard is Randy Moss. Hobbled and facing Champ Bailey at Mile-high, things don’t look good. But he may be good for a TD or two. If this was a yardage league, strong advantage to Tuna. But it’s not, so Tuna has a more moderate edge here.
TE: Todd Heap should have been in the Pro Bowl instead of Tony Gonzalez. He’s been the only viable weapon on the Baltimore D (though their rookie WR is making some noise now), while Gonzalez has had the luxury of opposing safeties and linebackers paying attention to Larry Johnson. Witten has been good and is finally meeting preseason expectations. But he faces a slightly tougher defense. Slight advantage for Tuna.
K: Both are going to the Pro-bowl. Both are playing at home. It’s a push of a crapshoot.
DST: This is where it gets veeeery interesting. The possible difference in the match may be how Hai picks his defense. Tuna is starting the now-deadly NE Defense in anticipation of the Jets matchup. Indy Colts makes bigger plays, but they may be taking the day off against the Seahawks. Indy has been known to hide their "A" plays in late regular season, no-stake games if there was any possibility of the Colts meeting the other team in the playoffs. Well, there’s quite a strong chance Indy may meet Seattle in that ending playoff game called the Super Bowl. Anyway, back to Hai. He can start the Giants and force Tuna to be conflicted in his rooting for the Giants. This would also hedge Hai if Santana Moss has a poor game. Or he could start the Panthers and allow himself to be conflicted, as the Panthers face the Cowboys in a must-win game for both. If Tuna was starting Brunell, Hai would have a better reason to sit the Giants as per the Andrew Helper Monkey Defense rule. Right now, however, there is this one tie-breaker to use: Go with the team that has the hotter cheerleaders. Umm, the Giants have none. The Panthers, well, you know what their cheerleaders are like. I’d still give a slight edge to Tuna, as the Pats are trending fuego while both Giants and Panthers have been volatile.
Overall summary: It’s not going to be a very high scoring game. 60 points may be enough to win. The Sportsline may show Hai to have a material advantage, but I think Tuna is set up better than Hai to score during this one particular week due to team dynamics and matchups.
Comments
Game Lines: Week 16
Lines are derived from Hector and Victor projections when available and season averages otherwise. Lines may shift dramatically on
Thursdays following the release of the weekly Hector and Victor projections.
GAME LINES
AWAY TEAM AWAY LINE HOME TEAM HOME LINE BOXSCORES
Team mcy-d +34 Boxerwiggle box -34 Quick | Full | Preview
Naples Hooters +6 TEAM Scrubs -6 Quick | Full | Preview